倍受矚目的十九屆五中全會審議通過“十四五”規劃和二零三五年遠景目標的建議,為我國今后的發展擘畫了雄偉的藍圖。
2020年是我國全面(mian)建成小康社會的決(jue)戰之年,也是我國完(wan)成“十(shi)三五(wu)”規劃的收官之年。
尤其(qi)今年伊始(shi)飛出(chu)的(de)新冠疫情這個超級(ji)“黑天鵝”給(gei)國際地緣政治、全球經濟社會(hui)發展帶來巨大沖(chong)擊和負面影響,導致全球能(neng)源電(dian)力投資與建(jian)設市場(chang)的(de)不確(que)定(ding)性(xing)顯(xian)著增加。
面(mian)對日益復雜的國內外(wai)發(fa)展環境(jing),作為(wei)國民經濟發(fa)展“先行官”的電(dian)力(li)投(tou)資(zi)與建(jian)設(she)產(chan)業應(ying)當更(geng)好地(di)遵(zun)循新發(fa)展理念、高質(zhi)量發(fa)展觀(guan)和新發(fa)展格局(ju)的總要求,全面(mian)建(jian)設(she)清潔(jie)低碳(tan)、安(an)全高效的能源供應(ying)體系,為(wei)我國社會主義(yi)現(xian)代化建(jian)設(she)提供強有力(li)的動力(li)保障。
“十三五”我國電力投資與建設發展的總體回顧
(一)“十三五”我國電力投資與建設取得主要成就
電力(li)投(tou)資與建設(she)規模降(jiang)中(zhong)有升。2016年至2020年1月到(dao)9月,全國電力(li)工程(cheng)建設(she)完成(cheng)投(tou)資分(fen)(fen)(fen)別達(da)(da)(da)到(dao)8840億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、8239億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、8127億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、8295億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)和5981億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),分(fen)(fen)(fen)別比(bi)上年同(tong)期增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)3.1%、-6.8%、-1.4%、1.6%、26.08%,呈現出前三年下降(jiang)后兩年上升的態勢。其(qi)中(zhong),電源投(tou)資分(fen)(fen)(fen)別達(da)(da)(da)到(dao)3408億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、2900億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、2787億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、3283億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、3082億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),分(fen)(fen)(fen)別比(bi)上年增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)-13.4%、-14.9%、-3.9%、71.51%(見表1);電網投(tou)資分(fen)(fen)(fen)別達(da)(da)(da)到(dao)5431億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、5339億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、5340億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、5012億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)、2899億(yi)(yi)(yi)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),比(bi)上年增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)17.2%、-1.7%、0%、-6.7%、-0.02%。
縱觀“十三五”期(qi)間的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)與建(jian)設歷程,雖然(ran)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)呈現逐年(nian)(nian)下降趨勢(shi),但(dan)每年(nian)(nian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)一直遠(yuan)高(gao)于電(dian)(dian)(dian)源投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)源投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)在2020年(nian)(nian)前(qian)九個月(yue)之所(suo)以出現快速增長(chang)情(qing)況,是(shi)由于受到發改價格〔2019〕882號文的(de)(de)影響,要(yao)求2018年(nian)(nian)前(qian)核準的(de)(de)陸上風電(dian)(dian)(dian)項目必須趕在2020年(nian)(nian)底前(qian)完成并網,否則國家不再(zai)補(bu)貼,同時水電(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)光伏發電(dian)(dian)(dian)項目投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)也比上年(nian)(nian)同期(qi)有較大幅度增長(chang)。
電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)投資與(yu)建設結(jie)構(gou)日(ri)(ri)趨合理。2016年(nian)(nian)至2020年(nian)(nian),全(quan)國(guo)全(quan)口徑(jing)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容量分別(bie)為16.51億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、17.77千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、19.00億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、20.10億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、20.90億千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(截至2020年(nian)(nian)9月(yue)(yue)底),分別(bie)比(bi)上年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)長8.2%、7.7%、6.5%、5.8%、5.9%(見表2和圖(tu)1);每年(nian)(nian)新增(zeng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)容量分別(bie)為12143萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、13118萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、12785萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、10500萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、7545萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(2020年(nian)(nian)1-9月(yue)(yue)),其中,火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(燃煤與(yu)燃氣發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian))新增(zeng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)分別(bie)為5048萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、4453萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、4380萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、4423萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、3183萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(2020年(nian)(nian)1-9月(yue)(yue)),非化石(shi)能源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(包(bao)括水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、光(guang)伏等)新增(zeng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)分別(bie)為7095萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、9044萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、8647萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、6469萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)、4362萬(wan)(wan)(wan)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(2020年(nian)(nian)1-9月(yue)(yue))。總(zong)體而言,“十三五”期間我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)需形(xing)勢總(zong)體相對寬松,化解(jie)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)產能過剩效果較為明顯,電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)結(jie)構(gou)綠(lv)色低(di)碳化特征(zheng)日(ri)(ri)益(yi)顯現。
電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)投資與建設(she)水平持續提升。2016年至2019年,全國新增(zeng)(zeng)交(jiao)流110千(qian)伏(fu)(fu)及以上(shang)輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)線路(lu)(lu)長度和(he)(he)(he)(he)變電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)備容量分別(bie)達(da)到56679千(qian)米(mi)和(he)(he)(he)(he)34585萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)伏(fu)(fu)安(an)(an)、58084千(qian)米(mi)和(he)(he)(he)(he)32595萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)伏(fu)(fu)安(an)(an)、56973千(qian)米(mi)和(he)(he)(he)(he)31024萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)伏(fu)(fu)安(an)(an)、57935千(qian)米(mi)和(he)(he)(he)(he)31915萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)伏(fu)(fu)安(an)(an),2020年1至9月全國新增(zeng)(zeng)220千(qian)伏(fu)(fu)及以上(shang)輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)線路(lu)(lu)長度和(he)(he)(he)(he)變電(dian)(dian)(dian)設(she)備容量分別(bie)達(da)到25450千(qian)米(mi)和(he)(he)(he)(he)16202萬(wan)(wan)千(qian)伏(fu)(fu)安(an)(an),繼續保(bao)持平穩有序的發展態勢。“十三五”期間(jian)我國在特(te)(te)高壓(ya)領域投資與建設(she)大(da)約是“十二五”期間(jian)的三倍,新增(zeng)(zeng)投產(chan)特(te)(te)高壓(ya)交(jiao)流或直(zhi)流線路(lu)(lu)分別(bie)達(da)到3條(tiao)、7條(tiao)、2條(tiao)、4條(tiao)和(he)(he)(he)(he)6條(tiao),大(da)大(da)地提高了電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)跨(kua)大(da)區電(dian)(dian)(dian)力優(you)化配置(zhi)和(he)(he)(he)(he)清(qing)潔能源消納能力。另外,全國小城鎮中心村電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)改造(zao)全面(mian)完(wan)成,平原地區機井通(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)實現全覆蓋,貧困村實現通(tong)動力電(dian)(dian)(dian),電(dian)(dian)(dian)力普遍服務(wu)能力和(he)(he)(he)(he)系統(tong)調峰能力全面(mian)增(zeng)(zeng)強。
電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)投資(zi)與(yu)建設造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)穩中(zhong)有升。“十三(san)五(wu)”規劃的前四年,我國主(zhu)(zhu)要電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)決(jue)算單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)方面:燃煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)竣(jun)(jun)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)普遍存在小(xiao)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)上(shang)升,燃氣電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)竣(jun)(jun)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)存在小(xiao)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)波動,水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)竣(jun)(jun)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)穩中(zhong)有降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang),陸上(shang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和垃圾發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)竣(jun)(jun)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)穩中(zhong)有升,海上(shang)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和秸桿(gan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)竣(jun)(jun)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)穩中(zhong)有降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang),核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)竣(jun)(jun)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)相(xiang)對較大,光伏(fu)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項目(mu)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)竣(jun)(jun)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)最(zui)為(wei)明顯;在電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)決(jue)算單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)方面:輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)線路(lu)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)竣(jun)(jun)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)受(shou)材料價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格、工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)地形和導線截面等(deng)因(yin)素(su)影響,呈(cheng)現小(xiao)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)上(shang)升態勢(shi);變電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)竣(jun)(jun)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)除750千伏(fu)等(deng)級(ji)呈(cheng)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)態勢(shi)外,其(qi)他等(deng)級(ji)變電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)竣(jun)(jun)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)因(yin)受(shou)不(bu)同電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓等(deng)級(ji)的主(zhu)(zhu)變、斷路(lu)器價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格上(shang)漲而出(chu)現一(yi)定(ding)程(cheng)(cheng)度(du)的上(shang)漲;換流(liu)站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)竣(jun)(jun)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)在2017年達到(dao)歷史最(zui)高后,2018年呈(cheng)現出(chu)較大幅(fu)(fu)(fu)度(du)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang),2019年又出(chu)現小(xiao)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)上(shang)升。總體來(lai)看,“十三(san)五(wu)”期間,除光伏(fu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)出(chu)現較為(wei)明顯下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)外,其(qi)他類型的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)變化不(bu)是(shi)(shi)很明顯,如何有效降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)程(cheng)(cheng)單(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)仍是(shi)(shi)值得深入探討(tao)的“大文(wen)章(zhang)”。
國際(ji)電(dian)(dian)力投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)與合作持續增(zeng)強。“十三五(wu)”規劃的(de)前(qian)四(si)年,我國主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)電(dian)(dian)力企(qi)業(ye)實際(ji)對(dui)外(wai)完成投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)77.85億美元(yuan)、193億元(yuan)美元(yuan)、57.9億美元(yuan)、42.6億美元(yuan),同比分別增(zeng)長168.66%、147.91%、-70%、-26.4%。截止到2019年底(di),我國主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)電(dian)(dian)力企(qi)業(ye)對(dui)外(wai)實際(ji)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)總額累計達(da)到878.5億美元(yuan),帶(dai)動了(le)勞務、標準、技術、裝備的(de)“走(zou)出去”。我國電(dian)(dian)力企(qi)業(ye)對(dui)外(wai)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)領域(yu)涉及火電(dian)(dian)、水電(dian)(dian)、新能源、輸變電(dian)(dian)及礦(kuang)產資(zi)(zi)源等領域(yu)。東南(nan)亞(ya)、南(nan)亞(ya)、歐洲、南(nan)美洲等“一帶(dai)一路”沿(yan)線國家是我國電(dian)(dian)力企(qi)業(ye)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)的(de)重點區域(yu)。國網、南(nan)網、三峽集團(tuan)、中廣核、國家電(dian)(dian)投(tou)(tou)等電(dian)(dian)力企(qi)業(ye)的(de)對(dui)外(wai)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)排名(ming)相對(dui)靠前(qian)。投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)方式以BOT等綠地投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)占主(zhu)(zhu)導地位(wei),并購、參(can)股以及其(qi)他投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)方式為境外(wai)投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)的(de)重要(yao)(yao)補充(chong)。
(二)“十三五”我國電力投資與建設特點及問題
通過(guo)上述分析,我國(guo)“十(shi)三(san)(san)(san)五”電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)投資(zi)與建(jian)設大(da)體呈現以(yi)下(xia)(xia)主(zhu)(zhu)要特(te)征:一(yi)是同“十(shi)二五”電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)投資(zi)相比,“十(shi)三(san)(san)(san)五”期間電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)投資(zi)一(yi)直高(gao)于(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)投資(zi),并(bing)(bing)且(qie)兩者間的(de)(de)(de)差距有進一(yi)步(bu)(bu)拉大(da)的(de)(de)(de)趨(qu)勢;二是在電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)投資(zi)中,可再生(sheng)能源(yuan)投資(zi)占(zhan)據主(zhu)(zhu)導地位(wei),傳統的(de)(de)(de)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)投資(zi)比重(zhong)(zhong)逐年下(xia)(xia)降(jiang),核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)投資(zi)項目經過(guo)多年中斷后在2019年實現重(zhong)(zhong)啟,非石化裝機占(zhan)比逐年提高(gao);三(san)(san)(san)是伴隨著(zhu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)技術的(de)(de)(de)不斷進步(bu)(bu),光(guang)伏發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)單位(wei)造價呈下(xia)(xia)降(jiang)態(tai)勢,但受到(dao)原材(cai)料、人工(gong)價格上漲等因素的(de)(de)(de)對沖,水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)單位(wei)造價變化并(bing)(bing)不明(ming)顯,單位(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)度成本仍相對較高(gao);四是隨著(zhu)“走(zou)出去”戰略(lve)推動和中美(mei)經貿摩擦(ca)加(jia)劇,境外(wai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)投資(zi)與建(jian)設出現前增后降(jiang)的(de)(de)(de)趨(qu)勢。
總體來(lai)說,“十三(san)(san)五期(qi)”期(qi)間我國電(dian)力(li)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)與建(jian)設(she)(she)取(qu)得舉世矚目(mu)的(de)成就,但也(ye)清楚(chu)認識到(dao)我國電(dian)力(li)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)與建(jian)設(she)(she)還存(cun)在不(bu)(bu)少問題:一(yi)是電(dian)網投(tou)資(zi)(zi)建(jian)設(she)(she)以(yi)主(zhu)干(gan)電(dian)網為主(zhu),配電(dian)網投(tou)資(zi)(zi)明顯滯后,電(dian)網發展(zhan)的(de)不(bu)(bu)平衡矛盾(dun)較為突出;二是節能減排壓力(li)仍(reng)然較大(da)(da),截止到(dao)目(mu)前(qian)仍(reng)有2億多千瓦的(de)煤電(dian)裝(zhuang)機還沒實現超低排放,淘汰(tai)落(luo)后產能仍(reng)任重而道遠;三(san)(san)是新能源投(tou)資(zi)(zi)與建(jian)設(she)(she)受(shou)政(zheng)策影響較大(da)(da),風電(dian)、光伏發電(dian)“搶裝(zhuang)潮(chao)”頻(pin)(pin)頻(pin)(pin)發生,給正(zheng)常的(de)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)與建(jian)設(she)(she)活動(dong)帶來(lai)較大(da)(da)不(bu)(bu)確定性;四是電(dian)力(li)國際化程度仍(reng)然較低,特別是受(shou)中美貿易戰和新冠疫(yi)情引起(qi)的(de)貿易保護主(zhu)義(yi)的(de)重新抬(tai)頭,電(dian)力(li)“走出去”難度不(bu)(bu)斷加大(da)(da),電(dian)力(li)境外投(tou)資(zi)(zi)與建(jian)設(she)(she)的(de)風險明顯增大(da)(da)。
“十四五”我國電力投資與建設的發展目標及展望
(一)“十四五”我國電力投資與建設的發展目標
遵(zun)循新(xin)發展(zhan)理念、新(xin)發展(zhan)格局和(he)高(gao)質量發展(zhan)觀(guan),認(ren)真貫徹(che)習總書記提出“四個革命、一個合作”的(de)重(zhong)大能源戰略思想(xiang),按照全國一盤棋的(de)要求,堅定走(zou)好綠(lv)色(se)低(di)碳(tan)、清潔高(gao)效(xiao)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)轉型之路,加快(kuai)建立健全電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)投(tou)資治理體系、科(ke)學選擇電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)投(tou)資方向、持續優化(hua)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)投(tou)資結構、壯大有(you)效(xiao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)投(tou)資規模、切實(shi)推動(dong)(dong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)投(tou)資轉型升(sheng)級,不斷提升(sheng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)技術(shu)現代(dai)化(hua)水(shui)平,全力(li)(li)打造安(an)全高(gao)效(xiao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)應保障體系,全方位促進“電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)產業(ye)基礎高(gao)級化(hua)、產業(ye)鏈現代(dai)化(hua)水(shui)平明(ming)顯(xian)提高(gao)”,最終(zhong)實(shi)現電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)工業(ye)高(gao)質量發展(zhan),為(wei)在(zai)本世(shi)紀(ji)中葉把我國建設(she)成(cheng)為(wei)富強民主文明(ming)和(he)諧美麗的(de)社會主義現代(dai)化(hua)強國目標提供(gong)堅實(shi)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)支撐(cheng)和(he)動(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)保障。
(二)“十四五”我國電力投資與建設的主要趨勢
1.“雙循環”發展格局將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)成為(wei)(wei)我國電(dian)(dian)力(li)投(tou)資與建(jian)設(she)的(de)(de)根本(ben)方向。電(dian)(dian)力(li)是(shi)形成國內(nei)大消(xiao)費市場(chang)的(de)(de)關鍵一環。“十四(si)五”期間,國內(nei)最終(zhong)消(xiao)費將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)成為(wei)(wei)我國經濟增長的(de)(de)“壓(ya)艙石”,而以電(dian)(dian)力(li)替代和(he)節能降耗為(wei)(wei)核心(xin)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)投(tou)資與建(jian)設(she)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)是(shi)促進消(xiao)費升級、實現“六保(bao)”和(he)“六穩”的(de)(de)重要(yao)抓手。
2.高質量發展將成為(wei)我國電力投資與建設的(de)內在要(yao)求。綠(lv)色(低碳)、安(an)全(quan)、高效、經(jing)(jing)濟仍將是(shi)“十四(si)五”電力投資與建設的(de)重要(yao)內涵和本質要(yao)求,綠(lv)色(低碳)是(shi)方(fang)向(xiang)、安(an)全(quan)是(shi)保證(zheng)、高效是(shi)根本、經(jing)(jing)濟是(shi)要(yao)求,這四(si)者之間相(xiang)互相(xiang)承,有(you)機統(tong)一,不能偏(pian)重偏(pian)廢。
3.多層(ceng)次電力(li)(li)(li)市(shi)場將成(cheng)為我國電力(li)(li)(li)投資(zi)與建(jian)設的現實需要。“十四五”期(qi)間我國將全面建(jian)成(cheng)國家、省、市(shi)等(deng)多層(ceng)次電力(li)(li)(li)交(jiao)(jiao)易中心,中長期(qi)期(qi)貨(huo)、現貨(huo)、容量、碳交(jiao)(jiao)易以及(ji)輔助服(fu)務(wu)等(deng)多維度(du)電力(li)(li)(li)市(shi)場有機運行,電力(li)(li)(li)交(jiao)(jiao)易的便利(li)化有利(li)于(yu)推動電力(li)(li)(li)投資(zi)與建(jian)設的可持(chi)續(xu)發展。
4.數學化轉型將(jiang)(jiang)成為我(wo)(wo)國電(dian)力投資與(yu)建設的(de)關鍵力量。能源革(ge)命(ming)與(yu)數字(zi)革(ge)命(ming)的(de)相(xiang)互(hu)融合是大勢(shi)所趨。“十(shi)四(si)五”期(qi)間,加(jia)速對傳統(tong)電(dian)力的(de)數字(zi)化改造和(he)投資與(yu)建設,將(jiang)(jiang)成為推動電(dian)力轉型和(he)電(dian)力管(guan)理變革(ge)的(de)必由之路,使(shi)我(wo)(wo)國電(dian)力發展更加(jia)柔性化、互(hu)聯(lian)化、高端化和(he)高效(xiao)化。
5.高水平對外開放與合作將成為我國電力投資與建設的(de)(de)鮮(xian)明(ming)特性(xing)。遵循“共(gong)商、共(gong)建、共(gong)享”的(de)(de)理念,形成更(geng)大范(fan)圍、更(geng)寬領(ling)域、更(geng)深層(ceng)次的(de)(de)電力開放新格(ge)局,通過“引進來”和“走(zou)出(chu)去(qu)”雙向驅動,不斷(duan)開拓(tuo)國際電力合作共(gong)贏的(de)(de)新局面。
(三)“十四五”我國電力投資與建設的發展展望
1.重視數字(zi)技術應用,走智(zhi)慧化電力發展之路。
“新基建”催生出新電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力。新冠疫(yi)情給傳(chuan)統行業(ye)一記重拳的(de)(de)同時(shi),也讓以數字經濟(ji)為代表的(de)(de)新經濟(ji)迎來高光(guang)時(shi)刻。“十四五(wu)”期間,我國(guo)將會以更(geng)大(da)的(de)(de)勇氣推行“云(yun)大(da)物(wu)聯智(zhi)鏈”等(deng)現(xian)代信息技術在電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力領域(yu)更(geng)大(da)規模、更(geng)大(da)范圍地應(ying)用,加快推進(jin)智(zhi)慧電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(工)廠、智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)、智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)運維、智(zhi)慧工地、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力服務(wu)云(yun)平(ping)臺等(deng)建設,全(quan)(quan)面提升我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力的(de)(de)數字化(hua)、網(wang)(wang)絡化(hua)和(he)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)化(hua)水平(ping),統籌推進(jin)與“電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、氣、熱、信”等(deng)多網(wang)(wang)的(de)(de)橫(heng)向(xiang)緊(jin)密耦合(he)(he)、同“源、網(wang)(wang)、荷、儲(chu)”等(deng)各環節的(de)(de)縱向(xiang)高效深度(du)融(rong)合(he)(he),實現(xian)能(neng)(neng)源電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力整個系統各個環節的(de)(de)萬物(wu)互(hu)(hu)聯、人機交(jiao)互(hu)(hu),建立更(geng)加可靠、安全(quan)(quan)、智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)、高效的(de)(de)全(quan)(quan)球能(neng)(neng)源電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力互(hu)(hu)聯網(wang)(wang),并借助共享數據為用戶(hu)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)、發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、供應(ying)商和(he)政(zheng)府等(deng)提供點對(dui)點、端對(dui)端的(de)(de)服務(wu),進(jin)一步提高電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力綜合(he)(he)服務(wu)水平(ping)和(he)檔(dang)次,全(quan)(quan)方(fang)位增強電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統總體運行效率。
2.努(nu)力打造清潔(jie)電(dian)力,走低碳化電(dian)力發展之(zhi)路。
習(xi)總(zong)書(shu)記提出的(de)“碳(tan)(tan)峰值(zhi)、碳(tan)(tan)中和”兩(liang)個硬性(xing)(xing)目標,既是我國對全(quan)球的(de)莊嚴(yan)承諾,也是國人必須完成(cheng)的(de)政治任務。這需要電(dian)力行業在(zai)(zai)“十四五”期間加速(su)從化(hua)(hua)(hua)石電(dian)力向零碳(tan)(tan)電(dian)力轉變:一是在(zai)(zai)電(dian)力生(sheng)(sheng)產側進一步提升水能(neng)、核能(neng)、光伏、風電(dian)、生(sheng)(sheng)物質等幾乎(hu)不(bu)產生(sheng)(sheng)二氧化(hua)(hua)(hua)碳(tan)(tan)的(de)裝(zhuang)機比重(zhong),逐步降低石油、煤炭、天然氣(qi)等產生(sheng)(sheng)中高二氧化(hua)(hua)(hua)碳(tan)(tan)的(de)裝(zhuang)機比例(li),并(bing)加大現有石化(hua)(hua)(hua)電(dian)站的(de)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)改造和落后電(dian)力產能(neng)的(de)淘汰力度(du),最大限度(du)地(di)降低每度(du)電(dian)的(de)燃料消(xiao)耗量;二是在(zai)(zai)電(dian)力消(xiao)費側全(quan)方位開展節能(neng)降耗工(gong)作,盡量避免跑冒(mao)滴漏(lou)電(dian)現象發(fa)生(sheng)(sheng),因為(wei)節能(neng)是最大的(de)“環保”方式,降耗是最有效(xiao)的(de)“減排”手段;三(san)是在(zai)(zai)電(dian)力輸送側加大電(dian)網(wang)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)改造、加快超導等新輸電(dian)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)的(de)研發(fa)應用,盡可(ke)能(neng)地(di)降低“輸變配用電(dian)”各環節的(de)線損率;四是在(zai)(zai)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)創(chuang)新側加緊“碳(tan)(tan)捕(bu)捉和封存”等技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)研發(fa),使該技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)更加成(cheng)熟并(bing)具備(bei)經濟合理性(xing)(xing)、技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)安全(quan)性(xing)(xing)和市場推廣性(xing)(xing)。
3.加快電(dian)力(li)體制改革,走市場(chang)化電(dian)力(li)發展之(zhi)路。
打(da)破電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)“統購統銷(xiao)”、實(shi)現(xian)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)化的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)體(ti)系是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)“十四(si)五”深化改革必須要爬過的(de)(de)“坡”和邁過的(de)(de)“坎”,終(zhong)極目(mu)標就是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)要發(fa)揮(hui)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)在電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)資源配(pei)置中(zhong)(zhong)決(jue)定性作(zuo)用(yong),建(jian)(jian)(jian)立具有中(zhong)(zhong)國特色的(de)(de)、完善(shan)(shan)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)體(ti)系:一(yi)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)加(jia)(jia)大增量配(pei)電(dian)(dian)試點,完善(shan)(shan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)現(xian)貨(huo)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)體(ti)系,加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)放(fang)開發(fa)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)計劃,讓更多(duo)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)用(yong)戶在更大范(fan)圍(wei)內直(zhi)接到電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)一(yi)級市(shi)場(chang)(chang)參(can)與交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi),真正(zheng)建(jian)(jian)(jian)立一(yi)個(ge)主(zhu)體(ti)多(duo)元、充(chong)分(fen)競爭、有效管理(li)(li)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)現(xian)貨(huo)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)市(shi)場(chang)(chang);二是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)構建(jian)(jian)(jian)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)期貨(huo)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi),合(he)理(li)(li)搭建(jian)(jian)(jian)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)構架,豐(feng)富優(you)化交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)品種,充(chong)分(fen)發(fa)揮(hui)期貨(huo)在發(fa)現(xian)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)、對沖風險的(de)(de)作(zuo)用(yong),最(zui)終(zhong)建(jian)(jian)(jian)立公開透明(ming)(ming)、統一(yi)規(gui)范(fan)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)期貨(huo)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)市(shi)場(chang)(chang),這(zhe)亦是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)成(cheng)(cheng)熟電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)重要組成(cheng)(cheng)部分(fen);三(san)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)切實(shi)發(fa)揮(hui)政府(fu)指導監(jian)督作(zuo)用(yong),明(ming)(ming)確政府(fu)職能(neng)部門在電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)監(jian)管角(jiao)色定位,切實(shi)強化市(shi)場(chang)(chang)主(zhu)體(ti)準入、交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)規(gui)則、交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)合(he)同、交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易(yi)(yi)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)的(de)(de)事(shi)前事(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)事(shi)后(hou)監(jian)管;四(si)是(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)充(chong)分(fen)發(fa)揮(hui)社會中(zhong)(zhong)介(jie)組織作(zuo)用(yong),加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)建(jian)(jian)(jian)立相應的(de)(de)第三(san)方監(jian)管機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)、違約懲戒機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)和信用(yong)評(ping)估(gu)機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)等配(pei)套機(ji)(ji)制(zhi)(zhi)。
4.賦能電力(li)新(xin)型業(ye)態,走多元化電力(li)發展之(zhi)路。
“十四五”期間,我國(guo)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)革命電力(li)(li)轉型將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)走向前臺(tai),這意味(wei)著傳統煤電受淘(tao)汰(tai)落后產(chan)業力(li)(li)度加(jia)大的(de)(de)影響,投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)會受到(dao)較(jiao)(jiao)大制約,發(fa)電占比將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)進一步(bu)降低(di);水(shui)電因在電力(li)(li)調峰中作(zuo)用更(geng)加(jia)突出,投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)開發(fa)尤其(qi)是抽水(shui)蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)電站(zhan)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)穩步(bu)上升;核電投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)建設(she)(she)節奏(zou)有(you)(you)望(wang)趨(qu)于穩定,發(fa)電占比得到(dao)相應提升;風(feng)光等新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)隨著平(ping)價上網時代全面(mian)來臨,投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)有(you)(you)望(wang)贏來爆發(fa)性增長,發(fa)電占比將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)實現較(jiao)(jiao)大幅度提高。與此同時,氫能(neng)(neng)(neng)、燃料電池、化(hua)學儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)等新(xin)型能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)以(yi)及以(yi)充電樁(zhuang)為代表(biao)的(de)(de)電力(li)(li)替代業務(wu)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)迎來歷史(shi)性突破(po),成為電力(li)(li)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)與建設(she)(she)又一片(pian)“新(xin)沃(wo)土”,還有(you)(you)匯集綠色、高效、智(zhi)慧等于一體的(de)(de)綜合能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)系統將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)成為能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電力(li)(li)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)(zi)轉型發(fa)展的(de)(de)重要(yao)方(fang)向。“十四五”期間我國(guo)的(de)(de)電力(li)(li)結構(gou)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)逐步(bu)由傳統化(hua)石燃料為主電力(li)(li)向清潔低(di)碳的(de)(de)可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)電力(li)(li)轉變,電力(li)(li)業態更(geng)加(jia)絢麗(li)多彩。
5.推進國際(ji)電(dian)力合(he)作(zuo),走國際(ji)化電(dian)力發展(zhan)之路。
雖然后疫情時代國際(ji)貿(mao)易保護主義有重(zhong)新抬頭的傾向,但電(dian)力國際(ji)化(hua)發(fa)展仍處于(yu)重(zhong)要戰略機遇期。
一是秉持共商、共建、共享的(de)原(yuan)則(ze),加大“一帶(dai)一路(lu)”沿線國家(jia)的(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)投資布局力(li)度(du),帶(dai)動(dong)我國電(dian)(dian)力(li)技術、裝備、工程、標準和運維(wei)等(deng)全產業鏈“走出去(qu)”,切實提升我國在國際(ji)電(dian)(dian)力(li)市場上的(de)話語權。
二是積極推動我(wo)國(guo)與周邊國(guo)家電網(wang)的互聯互通,不斷壯大國(guo)際電力交易規模(mo),構建更加緊密的跨區(qu)域(yu)電力合作。
三(san)是發揮我(wo)國(guo)業已形成世界上最全電(dian)工裝(zhuang)備產品系(xi)列的(de)優勢,通過(guo)到(dao)境外(wai)投資(zi)建廠和興建電(dian)力產業園(yuan)等方式,進一步鞏(gong)固我(wo)國(guo)在國(guo)際(ji)電(dian)工產業鏈上的(de)地位。
四(si)是發揮(hui)我國強(qiang)大電力(li)基建(jian)能力(li),為海外業主(zhu)(zhu)提供一攬子和個性(xing)化的解決(jue)方案,提升我國在全(quan)球電力(li)建(jian)設(she)的主(zhu)(zhu)力(li)軍地位。
一言以(yi)蔽(bi)之,“十四五(wu)”期(qi)間,我國(guo)將會更加主動融入到世界電(dian)力分工體(ti)系,加大(da)與(yu)全(quan)球尤其(qi)是周(zhou)邊國(guo)家(jia)的電(dian)力交(jiao)流與(yu)合(he)作,更好服務于國(guo)家(jia)全(quan)球戰略目標(biao)的順(shun)利實(shi)現。