近(jin)期信用債違約(yue)持續發(fa)(fa)酵讓民企融資困境再次凸顯(xian)。年(nian)初至(zhi)本月初發(fa)(fa)生的信用債違約(yue)事件中(zhong)(zhong),違約(yue)主(zhu)體中(zhong)(zhong)小企業占比高(gao)達87%。較(jiao)之(zhi)于(yu)發(fa)(fa)達經濟(ji)體,我國中(zhong)(zhong)小企業融資“難”與融資“貴”相伴相生的表現尤為突(tu)出(chu)。結(jie)構性失衡決定了解(jie)決中(zhong)(zhong)小企業融資難題非一朝(chao)一夕(xi)可為。伴隨經濟(ji)轉型(xing)的長效(xiao)機制(zhi)調整(zheng),這一難題也無(wu)法憑借(jie)行政化(hua)手段來(lai)化(hua)解(jie),而(er)需要通過(guo)充分市(shi)場化(hua)來(lai)實現真(zhen)正的優勝(sheng)劣汰。
早(zao)在(zai)上(shang)(shang)世紀(ji)30年代,麥克(ke)米(mi)蘭爵(jue)士牽頭的(de)(de)(de)(de)委(wei)員會在(zai)調查英國(guo)金融(rong)和(he)工商(shang)業過程中(zhong)(zhong)就(jiu)在(zai)一份報告中(zhong)(zhong)就(jiu)提出(chu)(chu)所謂的(de)(de)(de)(de)“麥克(ke)米(mi)蘭缺(que)(que)口”,即中(zhong)(zhong)小(xiao)企(qi)(qi)業融(rong)資困(kun)難并非完全源于(yu)可靠擔保品的(de)(de)(de)(de)缺(que)(que)乏,而事實上(shang)(shang)因為資本有效供給(gei)低(di)于(yu)其有效需求(qiu)。此后的(de)(de)(de)(de)一系列研究表(biao)明(ming),類(lei)似問題并非孤例。在(zai)我國(guo),這一錯配的(de)(de)(de)(de)結構性特征或更為突(tu)出(chu)(chu)。世界銀(yin)行去年發布的(de)(de)(de)(de)《中(zhong)(zhong)小(xiao)微(wei)企(qi)(qi)業融(rong)資缺(que)(que)口報告》估計(ji),我國(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)小(xiao)微(wei)企(qi)(qi)業潛在(zai)融(rong)資缺(que)(que)口高達1.9萬億美(mei)元,分別占(zhan)中(zhong)(zhong)小(xiao)企(qi)(qi)業和(he)微(wei)型企(qi)(qi)業潛在(zai)融(rong)資需求(qiu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)42%和(he)76%。若僅(jin)看境內人(ren)民幣(bi)貸款余額,對中(zhong)(zhong)小(xiao)型企(qi)(qi)業和(he)微(wei)型企(qi)(qi)業,除國(guo)有與集(ji)體之外(wai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)企(qi)(qi)業占(zhan)比均值在(zai)五(wu)成(cheng)以上(shang)(shang)。
按銀保監(jian)會口徑(jing),截至去年(nian)三季度末民營企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)貸款(kuan)余(yu)額(e)約為30.4萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)元(yuan),據(ju)此(ci)推算中(zhong)小(xiao)(xiao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)占商業(ye)(ye)(ye)銀行(xing)貸款(kuan)余(yu)額(e)之比(bi)約為28%。另(ling)“據(ju)不(bu)完全統(tong)計(ji),現在銀行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)貸款(kuan)余(yu)額(e)中(zhong),中(zhong)小(xiao)(xiao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)貸款(kuan)占25%”。在直接(jie)融(rong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)渠道(dao)中(zhong),中(zhong)小(xiao)(xiao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)相對規(gui)模較國(guo)企(qi)(qi)不(bu)可同日而語。信(xin)用債是我國(guo)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)直接(jie)融(rong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)的主要渠道(dao)。據(ju)計(ji)算,2015年(nian)以來,中(zhong)小(xiao)(xiao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)累(lei)計(ji)凈(jing)融(rong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)額(e)僅2.3萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)元(yuan),同期國(guo)有企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)累(lei)計(ji)凈(jing)融(rong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)額(e)為14.6萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)元(yuan),外(wai)資(zi)(zi)(zi)、集體、公(gong)眾、其他(ta)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)凈(jing)融(rong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)額(e)約10.5萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)。此(ci)外(wai),去年(nian)以來,因經濟(ji)增速(su)下(xia)行(xing),總(zong)償還(huan)量明顯增加,中(zhong)小(xiao)(xiao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)債券累(lei)計(ji)凈(jing)融(rong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)規(gui)模僅為16.9億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)。2015年(nian)至今,我國(guo)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)股(gu)權(quan)融(rong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)總(zong)規(gui)模為7.2萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)元(yuan),中(zhong)小(xiao)(xiao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)股(gu)權(quan)融(rong)資(zi)(zi)(zi)不(bu)足3.1萬(wan)億(yi)(yi)元(yuan)。
中(zhong)(zhong)小微(wei)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)融(rong)(rong)資“難”在(zai)資本(ben)有(you)效供(gong)給(gei)低于(yu)其(qi)有(you)效需(xu)求(qiu),而這(zhe)自然也會推高(gao)資金(jin)(jin)價(jia)格,帶來硬幣(bi)另一面的(de)融(rong)(rong)資之“貴”。而除此之外,我國(guo)(guo)的(de)中(zhong)(zhong)小企(qi)業(ye)(ye)融(rong)(rong)資之“貴”還有(you)別樣的(de)注腳,其(qi)關鍵(jian)在(zai)于(yu)供(gong)給(gei)側的(de)中(zhong)(zhong)介(jie)成本(ben)。中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)社科院學部委(wei)員余永定(ding)從一個(ge)簡明的(de)可貸資金(jin)(jin)供(gong)需(xu)框架出(chu)發,對我國(guo)(guo)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)融(rong)(rong)資成本(ben)做過很有(you)代表性(xing)的(de)分析,給(gei)出(chu)了(le)可貸資金(jin)(jin)供(gong)給(gei)曲線的(de)7個(ge)原(yuan)因(yin),大多(duo)都與中(zhong)(zhong)介(jie)成本(ben)直(zhi)接(jie)相(xiang)關,如商業(ye)(ye)銀行壟斷地(di)位導致(zhi)加成率(lv)過高(gao),銀行避險偏好提(ti)升(sheng)風險溢價(jia),貸存比指標增(zeng)加交(jiao)易成本(ben),直(zhi)接(jie)融(rong)(rong)資渠道(dao)不暢(chang)強(qiang)化(hua)中(zhong)(zhong)介(jie)作用,需(xu)求(qiu)端的(de)融(rong)(rong)資“難”和(he)特定(ding)主體利率(lv)彈性(xing)低也導致(zhi)中(zhong)(zhong)介(jie)成本(ben)難以(yi)抑(yi)制。
數據表(biao)明(ming),我國金融供給側資源的(de)配置效率不高,足以影響不同(tong)類型實體企(qi)業的(de)競爭力。
在監管趨(qu)嚴的新環(huan)境(jing)下(xia),非(fei)(fei)標(biao)(biao)急劇收縮引發的成(cheng)本上(shang)行和債(zhai)務違約(yue)、股(gu)權質(zhi)押風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)更需高度關(guan)注(zhu)。由于直接融(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)比(bi)重較低且(qie)信貸存在結(jie)構性(xing)錯配,中(zhong)小(xiao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)對(dui)非(fei)(fei)標(biao)(biao)融(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)的依賴程度明顯偏高。財(cai)政科學研究(jiu)院(yuan)《2018年(nian)(nian)“降(jiang)(jiang)成(cheng)本”專題調(diao)研報告》顯示,在2015年(nian)(nian)至(zhi)2017年(nian)(nian)間(jian),國企(qi)(qi)借款(kuan)結(jie)構中(zhong)銀行貸款(kuan)占(zhan)據(ju)絕對(dui)主(zhu)導,非(fei)(fei)標(biao)(biao)融(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)規模占(zhan)比(bi)僅為3%至(zhi)7%,反(fan)觀中(zhong)小(xiao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye),3年(nian)(nian)間(jian)對(dui)非(fei)(fei)標(biao)(biao)融(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)占(zhan)比(bi)則分別達43.9%、38.3%、15.4%。從(cong)社融(rong)(rong)口(kou)徑(jing)分析,非(fei)(fei)標(biao)(biao)存量占(zhan)比(bi)已從(cong)2015年(nian)(nian)底的16.2%降(jiang)(jiang)至(zhi)今年(nian)(nian)上(shang)半年(nian)(nian)的11.8%。因(yin)融(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)渠(qu)道(dao)(dao)受限,非(fei)(fei)標(biao)(biao)收緊進(jin)一步提高了中(zhong)小(xiao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)其他(ta)渠(qu)道(dao)(dao)的真實融(rong)(rong)資(zi)(zi)成(cheng)本,從(cong)而暴(bao)露(lu)出更多風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)。比(bi)如,債(zhai)務違約(yue)開始凸顯,中(zhong)小(xiao)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)企(qi)(qi)股(gu)權質(zhi)押風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)也(ye)在經營環(huan)境(jing)收緊和股(gu)市出現下(xia)挫的雙重壓力下(xia)不斷暴(bao)露(lu)。
凡此(ci)種種,足(zu)見破(po)局中小企業融資困境還需長效機(ji)制。
由(you)此,筆(bi)者(zhe)認為,化解(jie)中小(xiao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)融(rong)(rong)資(zi)之“貴(gui)”的(de)(de)(de)宏觀政策關鍵在于(yu)(yu)樹立長遠預期,實質(zhi)(zhi)重于(yu)(yu)形(xing)式(shi):第一,壓低銀行的(de)(de)(de)風險溢價,大力推(tui)進完(wan)善中小(xiao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)信(xin)用體系建設,建立良(liang)性的(de)(de)(de)信(xin)用擔保(bao)機制,避(bi)免“互聯(lian)”、“互保(bao)”等問題(ti)可(ke)能帶來的(de)(de)(de)系統性金(jin)融(rong)(rong)風險,進而降低融(rong)(rong)資(zi)成本(ben);第二,借助資(zi)本(ben)市場新一輪改革(ge)開放的(de)(de)(de)契機,簡化審(shen)批流(liu)程,暢通中小(xiao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)、新經濟企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)直接融(rong)(rong)資(zi)渠道,推(tui)動經濟轉向高質(zhi)(zhi)量(liang)發展;第三,鼓勵金(jin)融(rong)(rong)創(chuang)新,借助金(jin)融(rong)(rong)科(ke)技(ji)、監管科(ke)技(ji)等先進手段不斷完(wan)善相關金(jin)融(rong)(rong)產品,盡最(zui)大可(ke)能為中小(xiao)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)提供便捷、高效、低交易成本(ben)的(de)(de)(de)金(jin)融(rong)(rong)服務。