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6月27日，國家發(fa)展改革委就全面放(fang)(fang)開經(jing)營性電(dian)(dian)力用(yong)戶(hu)發(fa)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)發(fa)放(fang)(fang)通(tong)(tong)知（以下簡稱“通(tong)(tong)知”）。通(tong)(tong)知就全面放(fang)(fang)開經(jing)營性電(dian)(dian)力用(yong)戶(hu)發(fa)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)、支持中小(xiao)用(yong)戶(hu)參與市(shi)場化交易、健全全面放(fang)(fang)開經(jing)營性發(fa)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)后的(de)價格形成機制、切(qie)實做(zuo)好公益性用(yong)電(dian)(dian)的(de)供應保(bao)障及規劃(hua)(hua)內清潔電(dian)(dian)源的(de)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)消納保(bao)障等工作進行了具體部署。

通(tong)知旨在通(tong)過市場(chang)化交易降成本，提升制造(zao)業(ye)競(jing)爭力(li)(li)，推(tui)動用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量增長。經(jing)營性(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)用戶發用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)計劃是繼2018年放開煤炭、鋼(gang)鐵、有色、建材4個行業(ye)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)用戶發用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)計劃后，推(tui)動除居民、農(nong)業(ye)、重要公用事業(ye)和(he)公益性(xing)服務等行業(ye)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)用戶以及電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)生產供應所必需(xu)的廠用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)線損之外的其他電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)用戶的全電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量與(yu)交易。

具體看，通知的目的有二：

一是深化電力改革，擴大電力市場化交易。2016年(nian)國家發改委曾制定(ding)2018年(nian)放開全(quan)部工(gong)(gong)業(ye)用(yong)戶電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)，2020年(nian)放開全(quan)部商業(ye)用(yong)戶電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)目(mu)標(biao)。然(ran)而(er)，截(jie)至2018年(nian)年(nian)底，全(quan)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)市場交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(含發電(dian)(dian)(dian)權交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang))合計為20654億(yi)千瓦時，約占(zhan)全(quan)國工(gong)(gong)業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)的(de)(de)(de)44%，距離100%放開的(de)(de)(de)目(mu)標(biao)差價甚(shen)遠。因此，政府力(li)圖推(tui)動(dong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)市場化(hua)(hua)進程，使更多(duo)用(yong)戶通過市場化(hua)(hua)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)易享受電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)成本下降的(de)(de)(de)紅利。

二是通過建立市場化價格形成機制降成本。中(zhong)美貿易(yi)摩擦背景下(xia)，降(jiang)能源(yuan)成(cheng)本(ben)有利(li)于(yu)提(ti)振制造業競爭力(li)(li)(li)(li)。通(tong)知規定鼓勵(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)用(yong)戶(hu)(hu)和發電(dian)(dian)(dian)企業自主(zhu)協商簽訂合(he)同時(shi)，以(yi)靈活可浮動的(de)(de)形式(shi)確定具體價(jia)格。此舉意味著(zhu)售電(dian)(dian)(dian)用(yong)戶(hu)(hu)可以(yi)簽訂長期浮動價(jia)格合(he)同降(jiang)低發電(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)。同時(shi)，由于(yu)通(tong)知涉及的(de)(de)放開的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)用(yong)戶(hu)(hu)主(zhu)要為(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)較高(gao)的(de)(de)一般工(gong)商業用(yong)戶(hu)(hu)，放開后電(dian)(dian)(dian)網不再享受這部分用(yong)戶(hu)(hu)的(de)(de)購銷差(cha)價(jia)，僅獲取輸配(pei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)，因此，減(jian)少電(dian)(dian)(dian)網的(de)(de)中(zhong)間環節成(cheng)本(ben)將成(cheng)為(wei)用(yong)戶(hu)(hu)降(jiang)成(cheng)本(ben)的(de)(de)重要來源(yuan)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)成(cheng)本(ben)下(xia)降(jiang)有利(li)于(yu)提(ti)升制造業競爭力(li)(li)(li)(li)，提(ti)振下(xia)游用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增長，提(ti)高(gao)供電(dian)(dian)(dian)設備利(li)用(yong)率(lv)。

經(jing)營性行(xing)業發(fa)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)計(ji)劃的(de)放(fang)開(kai)將(jiang)在2019年(nian)(nian)帶(dai)來2000-3000億千瓦(wa)(wa)時市場化交(jiao)易增量。由于直購(gou)(gou)電(dian)(dian)交(jiao)易供用(yong)電(dian)(dian)雙方(fang)簽(qian)訂合(he)同執(zhi)行(xing)，造(zao)成執(zhi)行(xing)層面的(de)遲滯(zhi)性。譬如(ru)2018年(nian)(nian)放(fang)開(kai)四大行(xing)業發(fa)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)計(ji)劃的(de)總電(dian)(dian)量合(he)計(ji)約(yue)12299億千瓦(wa)(wa)時，我(wo)們(men)任務上述四大行(xing)業將(jiang)在2019年(nian)(nian)增加(jia)約(yue)4000億度直購(gou)(gou)電(dian)(dian)交(jiao)易。根據(ju)2018年(nian)(nian)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)數(shu)據(ju)測(ce)算，全部經(jing)營性用(yong)戶(hu)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量約(yue)38041億千瓦(wa)(wa)時，約(yue)占(zhan)全社會用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量的(de)56%。

由于政策下發(fa)在(zai)6月，增量(liang)(liang)用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶均為(wei)年(nian)(nian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)500萬千瓦(wa)時以下的用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶，鑒于參與(yu)電(dian)(dian)力(li)交(jiao)易需要專業(ye)人員，因此大部分用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶無法直接開(kai)展交(jiao)易，需要通過售電(dian)(dian)公(gong)司(si)購(gou)電(dian)(dian)，根據我們(men)(men)對多家售電(dian)(dian)公(gong)司(si)開(kai)發(fa)一般工商業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶的情況調(diao)研判斷，我們(men)(men)預計今年(nian)(nian)僅能增加(jia)直購(gou)電(dian)(dian)交(jiao)易量(liang)(liang)2000-3000億度(du)。據此，我們(men)(men)認為(wei)2019年(nian)(nian)全國市場化交(jiao)易電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)約為(wei)2.6-2.8萬億千瓦(wa)時，經營性行業(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)市場化爆(bao)發(fa)期或在(zai)2020-2021年(nian)(nian)。

未來用戶間或將簽訂浮(fu)(fu)動(dong)(dong)價(jia)格(ge)協議，但價(jia)格(ge)是(shi)否(fou)真正(zheng)下(xia)浮(fu)(fu)由(you)本(ben)地用電(dian)供需(xu)及煤價(jia)成(cheng)本(ben)決(jue)定。通(tong)知(zhi)指出“全面放開經(jing)營性發(fa)用電(dian)計(ji)(ji)劃后的(de)價(jia)格(ge)形成(cheng)機(ji)制……價(jia)格(ge)浮(fu)(fu)動(dong)(dong)方式由(you)雙方事先約定。”我們預計(ji)(ji)通(tong)知(zhi)發(fa)布(bu)后，政府將大力推行今年1月在(zai)江西試點(dian)“基準電(dian)價(jia)+浮(fu)(fu)動(dong)(dong)機(ji)制”。電(dian)力市場化的(de)主(zhu)要目的(de)是(shi)還原電(dian)力的(de)商品(pin)屬性，由(you)電(dian)力供需(xu)平衡發(fa)現價(jia)格(ge)。我們預計(ji)(ji)浮(fu)(fu)動(dong)(dong)價(jia)格(ge)或將使(shi)得(de)電(dian)價(jia)呈現淡季(ji)低價(jia)旺季(ji)高價(jia)的(de)格(ge)局(ju)，更好(hao)地反映(ying)電(dian)力供需(xu)及發(fa)電(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)。

保障清潔能(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)納(na)，降低棄水、棄風(feng)、棄光。通知鼓(gu)勵經營性電(dian)力用戶與核電(dian)、水電(dian)、風(feng)電(dian)、太陽能(neng)發電(dian)等清潔能(neng)源(yuan)開(kai)展市場化交易，這一措施利好具(ju)備外送(song)條件的(de)清潔能(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)納(na)，我(wo)們(men)推薦華(hua)能(neng)水電(dian)，國投電(dian)力。

放(fang)(fang)開經營性行(xing)業發用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)將導致電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網利潤(run)下(xia)降。本通知涉及(ji)的(de)放(fang)(fang)開的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力用(yong)戶(hu)主要(yao)為電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價較高(gao)的(de)一(yi)般工商(shang)業用(yong)戶(hu)，放(fang)(fang)開后電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網不再享受這部分用(yong)戶(hu)的(de)購銷差價，在電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網依(yi)然需要(yao)保障居民與公益性用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)供應(ying)及(ji)規劃內清潔電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源消納情況(kuang)下(xia)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網利潤(run)將進一(yi)步被(bei)削弱。