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目前，京津冀魯(lu)、蘇浙滬、華(hua)中東四省等(deng)3個主要地(di)區(qu)出(chu)現(xian)較(jiao)為明顯的(de)電(dian)力(li)供需緊張問題，當前應盡快發揮(hui)已建成的(de)跨省區(qu)輸(shu)電(dian)通道(dao)作(zuo)用，保障(zhang)電(dian)力(li)供應。

隨著(zhu)自身(shen)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)負(fu)荷(he)的增長及能源資(zi)源開發完畢，部(bu)分傳統外送(song)基地將依靠北(bei)方以及西(xi)南的區(qu)外來電(dian)(dian)(dian)接續供應。未來跨省跨區(qu)輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)通道布局除了要穩定“西(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)東送(song)”外，還需增加“北(bei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)南送(song)”。

近日，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)規劃設計總院發(fa)布《中國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)發(fa)展報告(gao)2018》，報告(gao)預測2019年(nian)(nian)至2021年(nian)(nian)，全國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)需形勢將全面趨緊。僅考慮(lv)目前已明確可投產的電(dian)(dian)(dian)源，在跨省區電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)流安排能夠落實的前提下(xia)，河(he)北、江(jiang)蘇、浙江(jiang)、安徽(hui)、湖北、江(jiang)西、廣(guang)東(dong)、廣(guang)西、河(he)南、海南未來3年(nian)(nian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)需持續(xu)偏(pian)(pian)緊或緊張(zhang)。遼寧(ning)、山(shan)東(dong)、上海、福建、四川、甘肅、云南、貴州未來3年(nian)(nian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)需由寬松或基本平(ping)衡(heng)轉為偏(pian)(pian)緊或緊張(zhang)。

電(dian)(dian)力規劃(hua)設計總院副院長杜忠(zhong)明表示，鑒于京津冀魯、蘇浙滬、華中東四省（湖(hu)北、河南、湖(hu)南、江(jiang)西）3個主要(yao)地區出(chu)現較為明顯的電(dian)(dian)力供需緊張(zhang)問題(ti)，當前應(ying)盡快發揮已建成(cheng)的跨省區輸電(dian)(dian)通(tong)道作用(yong)。為保障電(dian)(dian)力供應(ying)，2019年全國需要(yao)投產(chan)煤電(dian)(dian)4000萬千瓦左(zuo)右(you)，同時還需要(yao)一定規模的應(ying)急調(diao)峰儲備電(dian)(dian)源。

由于我(wo)國(guo)能(neng)源和電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)負(fu)荷分配不均(jun)，一直(zhi)以來，“西(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)東送(song)”成為維持電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)需(xu)平衡的重(zhong)要手(shou)段(duan)。目前，我(wo)國(guo)“西(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)東送(song)”規模已達(da)到(dao)2.4億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，形成了北、中、南3個通(tong)道(dao)的電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)流向格(ge)局(ju)，其中北通(tong)道(dao)7389萬千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，中通(tong)道(dao)1.2億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，南通(tong)道(dao)4772萬千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)。考慮(lv)目前已核準(zhun)的跨省區輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)道(dao)后，預(yu)計2021年西(xi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)東送(song)規模將(jiang)達(da)到(dao)2.7億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)。

經過(guo)20多年(nian)的發(fa)展(zhan)，“西電(dian)東送(song)”輸(shu)電(dian)通道較好發(fa)揮(hui)了(le)資源配置(zhi)平臺(tai)作用(yong)，為經濟(ji)社(she)會協調(diao)發(fa)展(zhan)提供(gong)了(le)強勁支撐。但從(cong)近年(nian)來的利用(yong)來看(kan)，部分(fen)新投產跨(kua)省跨(kua)區輸(shu)電(dian)通道送(song)電(dian)規模未達(da)預期(qi)，利用(yong)率有(you)待(dai)提高。

部分電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)外(wai)(wai)送(song)(song)基地還存在持(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)性(xing)不(bu)(bu)足的(de)問(wen)題(ti)(ti)。報(bao)告(gao)指出(chu)，西南優(you)質(zhi)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)資源已(yi)基本(ben)開發殆盡(jin)，后續(xu)(xu)(xu)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)開發難度不(bu)(bu)斷加大。預計四川、云南在2025年(nian)左右電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)外(wai)(wai)送(song)(song)能(neng)力(li)(li)達到峰值，2030年(nian)后電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)外(wai)(wai)送(song)(song)能(neng)力(li)(li)將出(chu)現下(xia)降。西南地區(qu)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)外(wai)(wai)送(song)(song)的(de)可持(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)性(xing)問(wen)題(ti)(ti)較(jiao)為(wei)突出(chu)。此外(wai)(wai)，貴州、安徽等(deng)傳(chuan)統(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)外(wai)(wai)送(song)(song)基地自(zi)身(shen)(shen)煤(mei)炭資源開發程度較(jiao)高(gao)，近年(nian)來電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)供應逐(zhu)步(bu)趨緊，沒有進(jin)一步(bu)擴大外(wai)(wai)送(song)(song)的(de)潛力(li)(li)。受(shou)多方(fang)面因素影響(xiang)，自(zi)身(shen)(shen)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源發展潛力(li)(li)有限，未(wei)來將逐(zhu)漸出(chu)現季節性(xing)缺口，外(wai)(wai)送(song)(song)能(neng)力(li)(li)不(bu)(bu)足，外(wai)(wai)送(song)(song)可持(chi)(chi)續(xu)(xu)(xu)性(xing)問(wen)題(ti)(ti)值得關(guan)注(zhu)，需超前謀(mou)劃(hua)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)接續(xu)(xu)(xu)問(wen)題(ti)(ti)。

與(yu)此同時，部(bu)分(fen)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)道(dao)(dao)的(de)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)化體(ti)制(zhi)機(ji)制(zhi)尚不(bu)(bu)完善。報告稱，目前，一(yi)部(bu)分(fen)早期(qi)投產的(de)如三峽外(wai)(wai)送(song)、溪(xi)洛渡外(wai)(wai)送(song)、向家(jia)(jia)壩外(wai)(wai)送(song)等(deng)跨(kua)(kua)省(sheng)跨(kua)(kua)區(qu)(qu)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)道(dao)(dao)采取(qu)(qu)了國(guo)家(jia)(jia)計劃(hua)送(song)受(shou)電(dian)(dian)(dian)模式(shi)，一(yi)部(bu)分(fen)如云(yun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)送(song)粵、黔電(dian)(dian)(dian)送(song)粵等(deng)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)道(dao)(dao)采取(qu)(qu)了簽訂中長期(qi)協議的(de)模式(shi)，另(ling)有一(yi)部(bu)分(fen)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)道(dao)(dao)參(can)與(yu)了年度臨時交(jiao)(jiao)易，部(bu)分(fen)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)進入了市(shi)場(chang)(chang)化交(jiao)(jiao)易。總體(ti)來看，當前的(de)跨(kua)(kua)省(sheng)跨(kua)(kua)區(qu)(qu)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)道(dao)(dao)交(jiao)(jiao)易模式(shi)較(jiao)為混雜(za)，不(bu)(bu)利于(yu)統(tong)一(yi)管理。一(yi)方面，國(guo)家(jia)(jia)能源結構調整戰略意圖無法保證；另(ling)一(yi)方面，輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)道(dao)(dao)運行經濟性無法得(de)到(dao)保障(zhang)，也不(bu)(bu)利于(yu)送(song)受(shou)兩端安排電(dian)(dian)(dian)源規劃(hua)布局，跨(kua)(kua)省(sheng)跨(kua)(kua)區(qu)(qu)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)通(tong)(tong)道(dao)(dao)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)化體(ti)制(zhi)機(ji)制(zhi)亟待完善。

為更好保障電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供需(xu)(xu)，杜(du)忠明認(ren)為，一(yi)(yi)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)，北(bei)方(fang)的(de)內蒙古(gu)、陜北(bei)、隴東(dong)(dong)、新疆(jiang)等綜合能(neng)(neng)源基地(di)(di)，在滿(man)足本地(di)(di)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)基礎上，仍(reng)具備增(zeng)加(jia)外(wai)送的(de)能(neng)(neng)力(li)；另(ling)一(yi)(yi)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)，隨(sui)著我(wo)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)占(zhan)終(zhong)端能(neng)(neng)源消費(fei)比重(zhong)的(de)大幅(fu)提升，東(dong)(dong)部(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)需(xu)(xu)求仍(reng)將保持增(zeng)長。但受(shou)能(neng)(neng)源消費(fei)總量及環(huan)保制約，東(dong)(dong)部(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源發(fa)展空(kong)間有限。在此背景下，東(dong)(dong)部(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)中(zhong)長期的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供應保障將更加(jia)依(yi)賴(lai)區(qu)外(wai)來電(dian)(dian)(dian)，“西電(dian)(dian)(dian)東(dong)(dong)送”發(fa)展的(de)內生動力(li)依(yi)然強勁，跨(kua)省(sheng)跨(kua)區(qu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)資(zi)源配置規模仍(reng)需(xu)(xu)進(jin)一(yi)(yi)步擴大。

當前，華(hua)中東(dong)四(si)(si)省(sheng)水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)資源(yuan)開發殆盡，同時電(dian)(dian)力需(xu)求快速增(zeng)(zeng)長，已由電(dian)(dian)力送出(chu)地(di)區轉變為接受電(dian)(dian)力地(di)區。貴(gui)州、安(an)徽(hui)、四(si)(si)川、云南(nan)等傳統外(wai)送基地(di)，隨著自身用電(dian)(dian)負荷(he)的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)長及能源(yuan)資源(yuan)開發完畢，將依(yi)靠北(bei)方以及西(xi)南(nan)的(de)區外(wai)來(lai)電(dian)(dian)接續。未(wei)(wei)來(lai)東(dong)部的(de)山(shan)東(dong)、江(jiang)蘇、浙江(jiang)、廣(guang)東(dong)等省(sheng)份仍將是受入外(wai)來(lai)電(dian)(dian)的(de)主(zhu)要(yao)地(di)區。杜忠明表(biao)示，隨著西(xi)南(nan)水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)資源(yuan)開發殆盡，其傳統的(de)輻(fu)射供能區域(yu)需(xu)尋找新的(de)供能方向。未(wei)(wei)來(lai)跨(kua)省(sheng)跨(kua)區輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)通道布局除了要(yao)穩定“西(xi)電(dian)(dian)東(dong)送”外(wai)，還需(xu)增(zeng)(zeng)加“北(bei)電(dian)(dian)南(nan)送”，以適應我(wo)國電(dian)(dian)力新格局。