近期,國聯證券發布氫能行業系列深度報告。以下為《綠氫風正帆懸平價在望》報告的要點內容。本篇報告重點探究了綠氫在深度脫碳領域發揮的作用,以及綠氫的降本路徑。
中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)承諾“雙(shuang)碳”目(mu)標,推動綠(lv)氫在(zai)脫碳領(ling)域規模化(hua)應用(yong):隨著我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)“3060雙(shuang)碳”目(mu)標的(de)(de)提出,全(quan)社(she)會生產資料將(jiang)向(xiang)著低碳化(hua)及(ji)凈零排(pai)放方向(xiang)發展,綠(lv)氫作為(wei)連接可再生能(neng)源與終端應用(yong)場景的(de)(de)綠(lv)色二次能(neng)源,將(jiang)在(zai)工業、建筑、交通(tong)等(deng)領(ling)域扮演深(shen)度(du)脫碳的(de)(de)重要角色。根(gen)據氫能(neng)聯盟數(shu)據,在(zai)碳中(zhong)(zhong)和情形(xing)下,預計到2060年(nian)我(wo)(wo)國(guo)(guo)氫氣的(de)(de)年(nian)需(xu)求量將(jiang)由(you)目(mu)前的(de)(de)0.37億噸(dun)增至1.3億噸(dun)左右(you),在(zai)終端能(neng)源消費(fei)中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)占(zhan)比由(you)目(mu)前的(de)(de)5%提升至20%,工業及(ji)交通(tong)將(jiang)是主要增量領(ling)域。
到(dao)(dao)2030年可再(zai)生綠(lv)(lv)氫(qing)或將(jiang)實現(xian)與灰氫(qing)平(ping)價(jia):從(cong)當前綠(lv)(lv)氫(qing)產業發(fa)展階(jie)段來看,整體處于產業導入階(jie)段,制(zhi)(zhi)約綠(lv)(lv)氫(qing)產業規模化發(fa)展的核心因(yin)素在于制(zhi)(zhi)氫(qing)成本(ben)。通(tong)過對可再(zai)生電解水綠(lv)(lv)氫(qing)全生命周期成本(ben)的拆(chai)解及預測,到(dao)(dao)2030年國內(nei)一些可再(zai)生資源(yuan)優勢(shi)區(qu)域,其綠(lv)(lv)氫(qing)成本(ben)將(jiang)實現(xian)與灰氫(qing)(10元/kg左右)平(ping)價(jia),到(dao)(dao)2040年則基(ji)本(ben)實現(xian)平(ping)價(jia)。
綠(lv)氫(qing)(qing)的(de)(de)大(da)規模應用(yong)或將在2035-2040年(nian)實現:通(tong)過綠(lv)氫(qing)(qing)在各脫碳應用(yong)領(ling)域(yu)(yu)的(de)(de)成本競爭(zheng)力分析,近5年(nian)綠(lv)氫(qing)(qing)將率先在供熱和(he)重卡行(xing)業(ye)得以應用(yong);到2030年(nian),部分可再生能源資源稟賦優勢(shi)區域(yu)(yu),綠(lv)氫(qing)(qing)成本可下(xia)探至與(yu)灰氫(qing)(qing)平價(jia)的(de)(de)水(shui)平,氫(qing)(qing)能在重型運輸領(ling)域(yu)(yu)可實現價(jia)格競爭(zheng)力;到2035年(nian)后,綠(lv)氫(qing)(qing)或將作為極具(ju)競爭(zheng)力的(de)(de)能源在主流工業(ye)領(ling)域(yu)(yu)和(he)交通(tong)領(ling)域(yu)(yu)大(da)規模推廣應用(yong)。
以(yi)下為本報(bao)告第四(si)章《氫能脫碳核心制約(yue)——平價綠氫何(he)時到(dao)來(lai)?》一章的主要(yao)內容(rong),轉發供(gong)參(can)考。
一、可再生能源電解水制氫是氫脫碳路線成立的重要組成
目前,氫(qing)的制(zhi)(zhi)取主(zhu)要有(you)三種(zhong)較為(wei)(wei)成(cheng)熟的技術(shu)路線:一(yi)是(shi)以(yi)煤炭、天然(ran)氣(qi)為(wei)(wei)代(dai)(dai)表的化石能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)重(zhong)整制(zhi)(zhi)氫(qing);二是(shi)以(yi)焦爐煤氣(qi)、氯堿(jian)尾氣(qi)、丙烷脫氫(qing)為(wei)(wei)代(dai)(dai)表的工業副產氣(qi)制(zhi)(zhi)氫(qing),三是(shi)電解(jie)水(shui)制(zhi)(zhi)氫(qing)。從供應結構(gou)來(lai)看,化石能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)制(zhi)(zhi)氫(qing)是(shi)我國獲取廉價(jia)及穩定供應氫(qing)氣(qi)的最主(zhu)要來(lai)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),其次為(wei)(wei)工業副產氫(qing),而電解(jie)水(shui)制(zhi)(zhi)氫(qing)占比極小。
從各(ge)制(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)路線的(de)(de)特(te)點來(lai)看,傳統制(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)工(gong)業中(zhong)(zhong)以煤(mei)炭、天然氣(qi)等(deng)化石能(neng)源為(wei)原(yuan)料,制(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)過程產生CO2排放(fang),制(zhi)得氫(qing)(qing)(qing)氣(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)普(pu)遍含(han)有(you)硫、磷等(deng)有(you)害雜(za)質,對提(ti)純及碳捕獲(huo)有(you)著(zhu)較高的(de)(de)要(yao)求。焦(jiao)爐(lu)煤(mei)氣(qi)、氯堿尾(wei)氣(qi)等(deng)工(gong)業副產提(ti)純制(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing),能(neng)夠避免尾(wei)氣(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)氣(qi)浪(lang)費,實現(xian)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)氣(qi)的(de)(de)高效利用,但從長遠看無法作為(wei)大(da)規模集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)化的(de)(de)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)能(neng)供應來(lai)看;電解(jie)(jie)水制(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)純度等(deng)級高,雜(za)質氣(qi)體少,考慮減排效益(yi),與(yu)可再生能(neng)源結合電解(jie)(jie)水制(zhi)“綠氫(qing)(qing)(qing)”被(bei)認為(wei)是(shi)實現(xian)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)脫碳的(de)(de)最佳途徑。
堿(jian)性(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)與PEM電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)將是(shi)(shi)未(wei)來電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)水(shui)(shui)主(zhu)流(liu)工藝路線電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)槽是(shi)(shi)利用(yong)可再生能(neng)源生產(chan)綠氫(qing)(qing)(qing)的關鍵設備。目(mu)前電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)水(shui)(shui)制(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)主(zhu)要有堿(jian)性(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)、質(zhi)子(zi)交換(huan)膜(PEM)電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)、固體氧化(hua)物(SOEC)電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)這三種(zhong)技(ji)(ji)術路線,根(gen)據各(ge)自技(ji)(ji)術特點以及(ji)(ji)商(shang)業化(hua)應(ying)用(yong)程度,堿(jian)性(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)水(shui)(shui)制(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)路線及(ji)(ji)PEM電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)水(shui)(shui)制(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)將是(shi)(shi)未(wei)來與可再生能(neng)源結(jie)合的主(zhu)流(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)水(shui)(shui)制(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)工藝路線。
堿(jian)(jian)性(xing)(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)。該技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)已實(shi)現(xian)(xian)大(da)(da)規模(mo)(mo)工業(ye)化(hua)應(ying)用,國內(nei)關鍵設備主(zhu)要性(xing)(xing)(xing)能(neng)指(zhi)標(biao)均接近國際先(xian)進(jin)水(shui)平(ping)(ping),設備成(cheng)本低,單槽(cao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)制(zhi)氫量較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)(da),易(yi)適(shi)用于電(dian)(dian)(dian)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)制(zhi)氫。PEM電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)。該技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)國內(nei)較(jiao)(jiao)國際先(xian)進(jin)水(shui)平(ping)(ping)差(cha)距較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)(da),體現(xian)(xian)在(zai)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)成(cheng)熟度、裝置規模(mo)(mo)、使用壽命、經(jing)濟性(xing)(xing)(xing)等方面,國外(wai)已有(you)通過多模(mo)(mo)塊集成(cheng)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)百兆瓦(wa)級PEM電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)水(shui)制(zhi)氫系(xi)統應(ying)用的(de)(de)項目案(an)例。其運行靈活性(xing)(xing)(xing)和(he)反應(ying)效率(lv)較(jiao)(jiao)高(gao),能(neng)夠以最低功率(lv)保持(chi)待機(ji)模(mo)(mo)式,與(yu)波動性(xing)(xing)(xing)和(he)隨(sui)機(ji)性(xing)(xing)(xing)較(jiao)(jiao)大(da)(da)的(de)(de)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)光伏(fu)(fu)具有(you)良好的(de)(de)匹配(pei)性(xing)(xing)(xing)。SOEC電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)。該技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)耗低于堿(jian)(jian)性(xing)(xing)(xing)和(he)PEM電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu),但尚(shang)未(wei)廣泛商(shang)業(ye)化(hua),國內(nei)僅在(zai)實(shi)驗室(shi)規模(mo)(mo)上(shang)完成(cheng)驗證示范。由(you)于SOEC電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)水(shui)制(zhi)氫需要高(gao)溫(wen)環境,其較(jiao)(jiao)為適(shi)合產生高(gao)溫(wen)、高(gao)壓蒸汽(qi)的(de)(de)光熱發電(dian)(dian)(dian)等系(xi)統。目前(qian)來(lai)看,堿(jian)(jian)性(xing)(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)成(cheng)本較(jiao)(jiao)低,經(jing)濟性(xing)(xing)(xing)較(jiao)(jiao)好,市場(chang)份額(e)較(jiao)(jiao)PEM電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)高(gao)一些。不過隨(sui)著燃(ran)料電(dian)(dian)(dian)池技(ji)(ji)(ji)術(shu)(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)不斷成(cheng)熟,質子交換膜國產化(hua)的(de)(de)不斷加速突破,長期來(lai)看,PEM電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)的(de)(de)成(cheng)本和(he)市場(chang)份額(e)將逐(zhu)漸提(ti)高(gao),與(yu)堿(jian)(jian)性(xing)(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)接近持(chi)平(ping)(ping),并根據各自與(yu)可再生能(neng)源電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系(xi)統的(de)(de)適(shi)配(pei)性(xing)(xing)(xing)應(ying)用在(zai)光伏(fu)(fu)、風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)領域。
“灰氫(qing)”+CCUS技術(shu)近(jin)中(zhong)期(qi)(qi)將(jiang)(jiang)幫助(zhu)“綠氫(qing)”實(shi)現(xian)過(guo)(guo)度雖然(ran)可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能源(yuan)電解水制氫(qing)是我國(guo)實(shi)現(xian)氫(qing)脫碳的(de)(de)終極之路,但(dan)從中(zhong)國(guo)的(de)(de)國(guo)情來(lai)看,由于(yu)規模化、低成本的(de)(de)可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能源(yuan)電解水制氫(qing)產業尚(shang)未(wei)形成,因(yin)此已有規模化、產業化的(de)(de)煤制氫(qing)路線仍將(jiang)(jiang)長期(qi)(qi)存在,但(dan)是需要疊加CCUS技術(shu)(碳捕(bu)集(ji)和封存利用)將(jiang)(jiang)“灰氫(qing)”變為“藍氫(qing)”,補充氫(qing)能的(de)(de)供(gong)應,“灰氫(qing)”+CCUS技術(shu)近(jin)中(zhong)期(qi)(qi)將(jiang)(jiang)幫助(zhu)“綠氫(qing)”實(shi)現(xian)過(guo)(guo)度。發展CCUS面臨的(de)(de)最(zui)大挑戰是綜合成本相對(dui)過(guo)(guo)高。
二(er)、2030年(nian)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)生綠(lv)(lv)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)或將實(shi)現(xian)與灰氫(qing)(qing)(qing)平價(jia)低成(cheng)本可(ke)(ke)再(zai)生氫(qing)(qing)(qing)的(de)(de)(de)實(shi)現(xian)路(lu)徑(jing)對于氫(qing)(qing)(qing)氣未來能不能實(shi)現(xian)平價(jia)應用至關(guan)重要(yao)。目前,通過可(ke)(ke)再(zai)生能源發電(dian)制取“綠(lv)(lv)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)”主(zhu)要(yao)面臨成(cheng)本高的(de)(de)(de)問(wen)題。一方面,當前階段以風電(dian)光伏為(wei)代(dai)表的(de)(de)(de)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)生能源發電(dian)成(cheng)本還比較(jiao)高;另一方面,電(dian)解(jie)(jie)槽的(de)(de)(de)能耗和初始投(tou)資(zi)成(cheng)本較(jiao)高,規(gui)模還較(jiao)小。因(yin)此,未來提高“綠(lv)(lv)氫(qing)(qing)(qing)”經濟性的(de)(de)(de)有效途徑(jing)將主(zhu)要(yao)依靠可(ke)(ke)再(zai)生能源發電(dian)成(cheng)本的(de)(de)(de)下降,電(dian)解(jie)(jie)槽能耗和投(tou)資(zi)成(cheng)本的(de)(de)(de)下降以及碳(tan)稅等政策的(de)(de)(de)引導。
電(dian)解(jie)(jie)氫成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)主(zhu)要受電(dian)力(li)(li)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)、電(dian)解(jie)(jie)槽投資成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)影(ying)響。電(dian)解(jie)(jie)氫成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)主(zhu)要由3部(bu)分組(zu)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng):1)電(dian)力(li)(li)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)。依(yi)靠風(feng)電(dian)、光(guang)伏等可再生(sheng)能(neng)源產生(sheng)的(de)電(dian)力(li)(li),將水電(dian)解(jie)(jie)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)氫氣(qi)和氧氣(qi)。2)投資成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(CAPEX)。主(zhu)要為電(dian)解(jie)(jie)槽系統(tong)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)。3)運維成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(OPEX)。因此,綠(lv)氫全生(sheng)命周期(qi)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(LCOH)=電(dian)力(li)(li)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)+投資成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(capex)+運行成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(opex)。
以(yi)歐洲(zhou)100MW規模(mo)綠(lv)(lv)氫(qing)電解裝置為(wei)例,從(cong)該綠(lv)(lv)氫(qing)制備的(de)(de)全(quan)生命周期(qi)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本來看,可再生電力成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本占據(ju)綠(lv)(lv)氫(qing)全(quan)生命周期(qi)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本的(de)(de)56%,電解槽(cao)系(xi)統投資(zi)(zi)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本占據(ju)38%。因(yin)此,電價水(shui)平以(yi)及(ji)電解槽(cao)系(xi)統初始投資(zi)(zi)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本的(de)(de)高(gao)低(di)直接(jie)影(ying)響最終綠(lv)(lv)氫(qing)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本,同時影(ying)響綠(lv)(lv)氫(qing)在各應用領(ling)域脫碳的(de)(de)節奏和進(jin)度(du)。
為(wei)了探究可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)水(shui)制氫何(he)時能(neng)夠(gou)實現(xian)與灰氫平(ping)價(jia),我們對(dui)綠氫全生(sheng)命周期成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)進(jin)(jin)(jin)行拆解(jie)及預(yu)測(僅對(dui)成(cheng)(cheng)熟(shu)度(du)水(shui)平(ping)較高的(de)堿(jian)性電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)水(shui)制氫進(jin)(jin)(jin)行成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)拆解(jie)預(yu)測),對(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)、CAPEX、OPEX關(guan)鍵影響因(yin)素(su)做出如下(xia)假設:(1)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源平(ping)準化(hua)度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(LCOE)。隨(sui)著投資(zi)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)的(de)下(xia)降(jiang)以(yi)及技術(shu)的(de)不斷(duan)進(jin)(jin)(jin)步(bu)(bu),未來(lai)可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源將(jiang)成(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)一次能(neng)源消費中的(de)主體,可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源平(ping)準化(hua)度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)將(jiang)大幅(fu)(fu)下(xia)降(jiang),參考(kao)Hrdrogen council、IRENA、中國氫能(neng)聯(lian)盟以(yi)及發改委能(neng)源所的(de)預(yu)測,以(yi)2020年(nian)(nian)為(wei)基準年(nian)(nian),預(yu)計可(ke)(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源的(de)綜(zong)合度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)(包含光(guang)伏(fu)(fu)、風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian))到2030年(nian)(nian)將(jiang)下(xia)降(jiang)30%,到2050年(nian)(nian)將(jiang)下(xia)降(jiang)60%。而部(bu)分光(guang)伏(fu)(fu)、風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)資(zi)源優質地區,其度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)的(de)降(jiang)幅(fu)(fu)將(jiang)明顯(xian)快于(yu)平(ping)均水(shui)平(ping),以(yi)光(guang)伏(fu)(fu)為(wei)例,參考(kao)中國光(guang)伏(fu)(fu)行業協會給出的(de)數(shu)據,2020年(nian)(nian)國內(nei)部(bu)分光(guang)伏(fu)(fu)利(li)用小時數(shu)為(wei)1800h的(de)地區,光(guang)伏(fu)(fu)度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)已降(jiang)低至(zhi)0.2元/KWh,且未來(lai)仍有進(jin)(jin)(jin)一步(bu)(bu)下(xia)降(jiang)空間。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)效率。參考(kao)IRENA及IEA等權(quan)威機(ji)構數(shu)據,2020年(nian)(nian)國內(nei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)水(shui)制氫能(neng)耗(hao)約為(wei)55kwh/kg-H2(對(dui)應65.7%的(de)轉換效率),未來(lai)隨(sui)著電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)槽(cao)工(gong)藝的(de)不斷(duan)優化(hua),特別是(shi)改進(jin)(jin)(jin)交換膜、催化(hua)劑及系統(tong)集成(cheng)(cheng),能(neng)效將(jiang)進(jin)(jin)(jin)一步(bu)(bu)提高,預(yu)計到2050年(nian)(nian)國內(nei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)效率可(ke)(ke)以(yi)提升至(zhi)46kwh/kg-H2。
(2)CAPEX電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)初始(shi)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)成本(ben)。影響(xiang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)成本(ben)的(de)(de)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)因(yin)(yin)(yin)素為電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)制氫規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo),包括(kuo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)堆規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)及電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo):1)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)堆規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)化降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)本(ben)。當(dang)(dang)前單位(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)堆普(pu)遍(bian)為兆瓦級規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(目(mu)前全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)最(zui)大的(de)(de)單一電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)堆電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)是位(wei)于日本(ben)福島的(de)(de)10MW電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)堆),根據IRENA權(quan)威(wei)機構(gou)數據,當(dang)(dang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)堆規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)由1MW分(fen)別提升至(zhi)(zhi)10MW、100MW時(shi),相(xiang)應電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)成本(ben)可分(fen)別降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)35%-45%、60%-70%;2)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)裝(zhuang)機量規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)化降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)本(ben)。當(dang)(dang)前全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)約(yue)為20GWh,按照(zhao)IRENA機構(gou)給出的(de)(de)能源(yuan)方案中(zhong),保守情(qing)況下(xia),到2030年(nian)(nian)全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)將提升至(zhi)(zhi)100GWh,屆時(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)成本(ben)將降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)40%,樂觀情(qing)況下(xia),到2030年(nian)(nian)全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)將提升至(zhi)(zhi)270GWh,屆時(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)成本(ben)將降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)55%,到2050年(nian)(nian),全(quan)球(qiu)(qiu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)將進(jin)入TW時(shi)代,假設(she)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)達到1.7TWh,系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)成本(ben)相(xiang)較于目(mu)前將降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)70。因(yin)(yin)(yin)此,綜合IRENA對(dui)(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)化降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)本(ben)預(yu)期,另補(bu)充Hydrogen Council的(de)(de)權(quan)威(wei)預(yu)測(ce),電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)成本(ben)隨著技(ji)術進(jin)步及規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)化到2030年(nian)(nian)將降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)60-80%,隨后因(yin)(yin)(yin)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)槽(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)(cao)系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)(mo)化因(yin)(yin)(yin)素的(de)(de)成本(ben)學習(xi)曲線率下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang),系(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)(tong)成本(ben)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)幅趨(qu)緩(huan),但仍隨著技(ji)術的(de)(de)進(jin)步不斷下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)。資(zi)(zi)金(jin)成本(ben)(WACC)。目(mu)前的(de)(de)加權(quan)平均資(zi)(zi)金(jin)成本(ben)假設(she)為10%,戶(hu)要(yao)(yao)考(kao)(kao)慮目(mu)前有關(guan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)水(shui)(shui)制綠氫項(xiang)目(mu)的(de)(de)相(xiang)對(dui)(dui)風險較高。假設(she)2050年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)加權(quan)平均資(zi)(zi)金(jin)成本(ben)為6%,與目(mu)前投(tou)資(zi)(zi)可再(zai)生電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力水(shui)(shui)平相(xiang)當(dang)(dang)。滿載小時(shi)數(設(she)備利用小時(shi)數)。滿載小時(shi)數是指年(nian)(nian)度滿負(fu)(fu)荷工(gong)(gong)作時(shi)間,由于可再(zai)生能源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)側(ce)存在(zai)波(bo)動性(xing),因(yin)(yin)(yin)此依(yi)靠可再(zai)生能源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)水(shui)(shui)制氫的(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)作負(fu)(fu)荷將主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)取(qu)決于風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、光(guang)伏等可再(zai)生能源(yuan)自(zi)身發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)負(fu)(fu)荷的(de)(de)提升。參考(kao)(kao)IRENA機構(gou)預(yu)測(ce),假設(she)2020年(nian)(nian)滿載負(fu)(fu)荷為3000小時(shi)/年(nian)(nian),到2050年(nian)(nian)提升至(zhi)(zhi)4000小時(shi)/年(nian)(nian)。
(3)OPEX固定運維。假設電解槽(cao)固定運維成(cheng)本為(wei)電解槽(cao)初始投(tou)資成(cheng)本的2%/年。
到(dao)2030年(nian)國內(nei)(nei)綠氫(qing)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)可(ke)實現(xian)與灰氫(qing)平價通過對(dui)可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)電(dian)解(jie)水綠氫(qing)全生(sheng)(sheng)命周期(qi)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)的拆解(jie)及預測,到(dao)2030年(nian),隨著可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)LCOE以及電(dian)解(jie)槽系統成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)的快速下降(jiang),綠氫(qing)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)將從(cong)2020年(nian)的30.8元/kg快速降(jiang)至(zhi)16.9元/kg。而2020年(nian)國內(nei)(nei)部(bu)分光伏利(li)用小時數為1800h的地區,光伏度電(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)已(yi)降(jiang)低至(zhi)0.2元/KWh,我們認為國內(nei)(nei)這(zhe)些可(ke)再生(sheng)(sheng)資源(yuan)優勢區域,其(qi)度電(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)到(dao)2030年(nian)將領先(xian)于(yu)行業平均水平達到(dao)0.1-0.15元/KWh,相應的綠氫(qing)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)將率先(xian)實現(xian)與灰氫(qing)平價。
綠氫的大規模應用或將在2035-2040年實現
在(zai)碳中和目(mu)標下(xia),綠氫(qing)(qing)將在(zai)工業(ye)、交通(tong)、建筑等碳排領域(yu)扮演重(zhong)要深(shen)度(du)脫碳角色。通(tong)過綠氫(qing)(qing)在(zai)各脫碳應用(yong)領域(yu)的成(cheng)本(ben)競爭力分(fen)析(xi),近5年綠氫(qing)(qing)將率先在(zai)供(gong)熱和重(zhong)卡(ka)行(xing)業(ye)得以應用(yong),天然氣(qi)管網中通(tong)過天然氣(qi)摻氫(qing)(qing)用(yong)于建筑供(gong)熱,這將是綠氫(qing)(qing)推(tui)廣的首次商(shang)業(ye)應用(yong)。此外,由于政府(fu)和民眾在(zai)氫(qing)(qing)氣(qi)基(ji)礎(chu)設(she)施建設(she)方面的支持(chi),綠氫(qing)(qing)最早可(ke)能(neng)于2025年在(zai)為(wei)重(zhong)型車輛(如區域(yu)列車和重(zhong)卡(ka))提(ti)供(gong)動力方面具(ju)備競爭力。
到(dao)2030年,部分(fen)可再(zai)生能源資源稟賦優勢區域,綠氫(qing)(qing)成本可下探(tan)至與灰氫(qing)(qing)平(ping)價的(de)水平(ping),即達到(dao)10-12元/kg,這意味著氫(qing)(qing)燃料可以取代柴(chai)油,也就標志著氫(qing)(qing)能在(zai)重型運輸領域極具價格競爭(zheng)力(li)的(de)轉折(zhe)。
到2035年后,綠氫或將作為極具競爭力(li)的(de)能源在(zai)主流工業領域和交通領域大規(gui)模(mo)推(tui)廣應用。