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當前，全球(qiu)新一輪能源(yuan)革命正(zheng)加速(su)演進，世界能源(yuan)體系(xi)深度(du)重塑。風(feng)能、太陽(yang)能等新能源(yuan)大規模(mo)開(kai)發利用，電能持續在工業、交通、建筑(zhu)等終(zhong)端(duan)能源(yuan)消費領域滲透(tou)，再電氣(qi)化已成為不可逆(ni)轉的全球(qiu)化趨勢。

再電氣化的內涵、特征及意義

再(zai)電(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)是指在(zai)傳(chuan)統電(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)的(de)(de)基礎上，充分利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)現代能(neng)源(yuan)、材料(liao)和(he)信息(xi)技術，進一步拓展電(dian)能(neng)的(de)(de)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)范圍和(he)規模，深(shen)度替(ti)代煤(mei)炭、石(shi)油等終端化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)費，推動全社會(hui)電(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)水平再(zai)度躍升，并促進清(qing)潔能(neng)源(yuan)大規模開發利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)，最終實現以(yi)清(qing)潔能(neng)源(yuan)為(wei)主導(dao)、以(yi)電(dian)為(wei)中心的(de)(de)高度電(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)社會(hui)的(de)(de)過程。

這(zhe)一輪再電氣化(hua)根(gen)植于(yu)全球能源加速清潔低碳轉型、積(ji)極應對氣候變(bian)化(hua)的(de)進(jin)程之中，與以往傳統工業化(hua)時期的(de)電氣化(hua)進(jin)程有本質區別。

清潔低碳電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)。從能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)生(sheng)產環節來(lai)看，傳(chuan)統電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)主要依靠煤(mei)炭(tan)、天(tian)然氣等(deng)化(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)來(lai)保障電(dian)(dian)力供應，而再電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)則伴(ban)隨著風(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)、太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)等(deng)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的大規模(mo)開發(fa)和(he)(he)利用，體現為(wei)清潔能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)對化(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的替(ti)代和(he)(he)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)占(zhan)(zhan)一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消費比(bi)(bi)重的提升。2018年(nian)全球(qiu)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)占(zhan)(zhan)一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消費比(bi)(bi)重為(wei)34.2%，比(bi)(bi)2000年(nian)提高了2.0個百分(fen)點；全球(qiu)清潔能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)和(he)(he)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)(bi)分(fen)別達到(dao)58.5%和(he)(he)9.3%，分(fen)別比(bi)(bi)2000年(nian)提高了5.6和(he)(he)7.9個百分(fen)點。未來(lai)隨著光伏電(dian)(dian)池轉(zhuan)換(huan)效率不(bu)斷提高、風(feng)機大型化(hua)(hua)發(fa)展(zhan)以及智慧運維技術的應用，新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)的度電(dian)(dian)成本(ben)還將持續(xu)下降。

預計再過5~8年，新建陸上風電和大型光伏(fu)電站的成(cheng)本將(jiang)低(di)于在運營的煤電成(cheng)本，新能源(yuan)將(jiang)進(jin)入(ru)大規模存(cun)量替代的高速發展階(jie)段。

深(shen)(shen)度(du)(du)廣泛(fan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)。從終(zhong)端(duan)(duan)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消費(fei)環節來看，傳統的用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)領域和(he)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)方式主要包括照明、加工(gong)、制造、運輸、制冷、通信(xin)等(deng)方面。再電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣過程中，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)的利用規模和(he)范(fan)圍將前所(suo)未有的拓展和(he)深(shen)(shen)化(hua)，對其(qi)他終(zhong)端(duan)(duan)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消費(fei)品種呈現出(chu)深(shen)(shen)度(du)(du)廣泛(fan)替代的趨勢。2018年(nian)全(quan)球(qiu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)占終(zhong)端(duan)(duan)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消費(fei)比(bi)重(zhong)為19.2%，比(bi)2000年(nian)提(ti)(ti)高了3.7個百分點。未來隨著(zhu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)替代技術經(jing)濟性不斷提(ti)(ti)高和(he)政策標(biao)準逐(zhu)步完善，工(gong)業電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)鍋爐、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)窯爐、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽車、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)采暖等(deng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)供能(neng)(neng)設備將不斷推廣普(pu)及，工(gong)業、交(jiao)通、建筑等(deng)終(zhong)端(duan)(duan)部門(men)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)水平將持(chi)續提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)。另外，隨著(zhu)5G時代的到來，數(shu)字經(jing)濟產業迎來加速發展，數(shu)據中心、通信(xin)基站等(deng)領域的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力需求將保(bao)持(chi)強勁增長，進一步促(cu)進全(quan)社會電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)水平提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)。

智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)互動(dong)電(dian)(dian)氣化。從整(zheng)個能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)系(xi)統(tong)來看，新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的(de)大規(gui)模接(jie)入和用能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)需求多(duo)樣化，對提(ti)高電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)運行的(de)穩定性(xing)、靈活性(xing)和抗(kang)擾動(dong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)提(ti)出了更(geng)高要求。大數據、云計算、物聯網(wang)、人工智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、5G、區塊(kuai)鏈(lian)等(deng)信息技術的(de)發展(zhan)，以(yi)及與(yu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行業的(de)深度融合，為建設更(geng)智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、更(geng)安全的(de)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)提(ti)供了支撐。未來電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系(xi)統(tong)發輸配用等(deng)各環節的(de)智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)化水平將不斷提(ti)升，源(yuan)網(wang)荷之間友(you)好互動(dong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)將顯著增強。在(zai)電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)側，通過先進(jin)傳感測量(liang)、可視(shi)化、智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)控(kong)制、大容量(liang)儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)等(deng)技術，實現大規(gui)模新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)智(zhi)(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)發電(dian)(dian)與(yu)友(you)好并網(wang)。

在傳輸(shu)側，利用(yong)智能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)、特高壓(ya)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、柔性輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)等技(ji)(ji)術，實現新能(neng)源(yuan)大規模遠(yuan)距離(li)配置和消納。在負(fu)荷(he)側，應(ying)用(yong)物(wu)聯網(wang)、智能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)表、智慧用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)系統(tong)等技(ji)(ji)術，實現用(yong)戶(hu)與(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)智能(neng)互(hu)動及主動負(fu)荷(he)需(xu)求響應(ying)。未來隨著再電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)進程的加快推進，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力技(ji)(ji)術與(yu)信(xin)息技(ji)(ji)術的深度(du)融合(he)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)全環節(jie)將(jiang)具備智能(neng)感知能(neng)力、實時監(jian)測能(neng)力、智能(neng)決策水平(ping)，源(yuan)網(wang)荷(he)之間(jian)實現高度(du)智能(neng)化(hua)的協同互(hu)動。

再(zai)電(dian)(dian)氣化是(shi)順(shun)應世界(jie)能(neng)源(yuan)變革(ge)潮流、積極應對(dui)(dui)氣候變化和(he)促進(jin)人(ren)類文(wen)明進(jin)步的重(zhong)要戰略選擇。對(dui)(dui)于(yu)世界(jie)而(er)(er)言(yan)，再(zai)電(dian)(dian)氣化將重(zhong)構世界(jie)能(neng)源(yuan)體系，使世界(jie)能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)展擺脫資(zi)源(yuan)、時(shi)空和(he)環(huan)境約(yue)束，實(shi)現大規模清(qing)潔能(neng)源(yuan)高效開發(fa)和(he)利用，推動清(qing)潔能(neng)源(yuan)成為(wei)主(zhu)導能(neng)源(yuan)，讓人(ren)人(ren)享有更充足的能(neng)源(yuan)供應、更宜(yi)居的生活環(huan)境，進(jin)而(er)(er)為(wei)構建(jian)人(ren)類命(ming)運共同體提供堅強的動力保障。對(dui)(dui)于(yu)我國而(er)(er)言(yan)，再(zai)電(dian)(dian)氣化與新發(fa)展理(li)念高度(du)契合，是(shi)深入貫徹“四個革(ge)命(ming)、一個合作”能(neng)源(yuan)安全新戰略的重(zhong)要體現。加(jia)快推進(jin)再(zai)電(dian)(dian)氣化對(dui)(dui)推動能(neng)源(yuan)生產和(he)消費革(ge)命(ming)、提升經濟(ji)發(fa)展質(zhi)量效益、促進(jin)生態環(huan)境改(gai)善、兌現減排(pai)承諾和(he)降低油氣對(dui)(dui)外依存(cun)度(du)等(deng)具有重(zhong)要意義(yi)。

我國再電氣化的發展現狀及國際比較

通(tong)常(chang)衡量一個國家(jia)或(huo)地(di)區的(de)電(dian)(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)水(shui)平的(de)指標主要有兩個：一是發電(dian)(dian)能源占一次能源消費(fei)比重，反(fan)映電(dian)(dian)力在整個能源供應體(ti)系(xi)中的(de)地(di)位；二(er)是電(dian)(dian)能占終端能源消費(fei)比重，反(fan)映經濟社會發展對電(dian)(dian)力的(de)依賴程(cheng)度。這一輪再電(dian)(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)以清潔(jie)低(di)碳(tan)為基本特征(zheng)，因此增加清潔(jie)能源發電(dian)(dian)量占比和新能源發電(dian)(dian)量占比，反(fan)映再電(dian)(dian)氣(qi)化(hua)進程(cheng)的(de)清潔(jie)低(di)碳(tan)化(hua)程(cheng)度。

新(xin)(xin)中國(guo)成立以來，我(wo)國(guo)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)進(jin)程(cheng)實現(xian)了(le)跨越式發(fa)展，能(neng)源(yuan)生產側(ce)和(he)(he)消費側(ce)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)水平、以及電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供應清潔低碳(tan)化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)水平均實現(xian)顯(xian)著提升(sheng)。2018年(nian)我(wo)國(guo)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)源(yuan)占一(yi)次能(neng)源(yuan)消費比重達到45.4%，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)占終端(duan)能(neng)源(yuan)消費比重達到25.5%，清潔能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量占比和(he)(he)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量占比分別達到36.3%和(he)(he)7.8%。煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)在我(wo)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)進(jin)程(cheng)中發(fa)揮(hui)了(le)基(ji)礎支撐(cheng)作用，清潔能(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)有效地改善了(le)我(wo)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供應結構。在終端(duan)部(bu)門(men)中，工業部(bu)門(men)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)步伐平穩(wen)，建筑部(bu)門(men)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)水平最(zui)高，交(jiao)通部(bu)門(men)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)發(fa)展速度最(zui)快。

全球電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)水(shui)平(ping)經過(guo)前(qian)期快速提升，近(jin)期進入平(ping)穩發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)階段，發(fa)(fa)(fa)達(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家普遍高(gao)于發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)中國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家。近(jin)年來，發(fa)(fa)(fa)達(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家受經濟增長放緩、替代能源競爭力(li)(li)增強、棄核政策等因(yin)素影響(xiang)，電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)進程明顯放緩，而我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)進程保持較(jiao)快發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)。目前(qian)我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)能源生產(chan)側電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)程度已(yi)達(da)到發(fa)(fa)(fa)達(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家平(ping)均水(shui)平(ping)，消費(fei)側電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)程度已(yi)超過(guo)發(fa)(fa)(fa)達(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家平(ping)均水(shui)平(ping)。但是在電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供應(ying)結構(gou)方面，發(fa)(fa)(fa)達(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供應(ying)清(qing)潔低(di)碳化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)程度已(yi)達(da)到較(jiao)高(gao)水(shui)平(ping)，我(wo)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供應(ying)清(qing)潔低(di)碳化(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)程度仍(reng)遠落后于發(fa)(fa)(fa)達(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家平(ping)均水(shui)平(ping)。

我國再電氣化的影響因素和潛力

影響再(zai)(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)化(hua)發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)主(zhu)要因素有(you)：一是(shi)資源(yuan)稟(bing)(bing)賦條件(jian)。各(ge)國都會基于自身資源(yuan)稟(bing)(bing)賦特點進(jin)(jin)行能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)有(you)效(xiao)開發(fa)和(he)利用。二是(shi)經濟發(fa)展(zhan)水(shui)平(ping)。各(ge)國電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)占終端能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消費(fei)比重與人(ren)均GDP呈顯著的(de)正相關關系。三是(shi)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)進(jin)(jin)步(bu)和(he)經濟性(xing)。技(ji)(ji)術(shu)進(jin)(jin)步(bu)是(shi)推(tui)(tui)動(dong)(dong)再(zai)(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)化(hua)發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)根本力(li)量(liang)，新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)和(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)替代技(ji)(ji)術(shu)進(jin)(jin)步(bu)將推(tui)(tui)動(dong)(dong)全社會電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)化(hua)水(shui)平(ping)持續提升(sheng)。四是(shi)宏觀政策(ce)取向。我(wo)國積極主(zhu)動(dong)(dong)應(ying)對氣(qi)(qi)候變化(hua)，持續推(tui)(tui)進(jin)(jin)生態文明建設，將有(you)力(li)推(tui)(tui)動(dong)(dong)再(zai)(zai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣(qi)(qi)化(hua)進(jin)(jin)程。

我國電(dian)(dian)能(neng)替(ti)(ti)代(dai)潛(qian)力(li)巨大，理論可替(ti)(ti)代(dai)潛(qian)力(li)達(da)4.6萬(wan)億(yi)千瓦時，技術可替(ti)(ti)代(dai)潛(qian)力(li)達(da)2.4萬(wan)億(yi)千瓦時。分部門(men)(men)來看，工(gong)業(ye)部門(men)(men)隨著電(dian)(dian)能(neng)替(ti)(ti)代(dai)技術設備經(jing)濟性(xing)提升和高(gao)質量工(gong)藝產品需求(qiu)增加，電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)水平(ping)將不(bu)斷提升。交通部門(men)(men)重點在(zai)鐵路(lu)和公路(lu)客(ke)運領(ling)域快速提升電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)率，航(hang)空、航(hang)運、公路(lu)貨運受能(neng)量密度(du)限制(zhi)，電(dian)(dian)能(neng)替(ti)(ti)代(dai)難(nan)度(du)較大。建筑部門(men)(men)隨著電(dian)(dian)制(zhi)冷、電(dian)(dian)采(cai)暖、電(dian)(dian)熱水器、電(dian)(dian)炊具的不(bu)斷推廣(guang)，電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)水平(ping)將持(chi)續提升。

我國再電氣化面臨的主要挑戰

清(qing)(qing)潔(jie)能源(yuan)發展(zhan)(zhan)尚無法完全滿(man)足(zu)(zu)新(xin)增(zeng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力需(xu)求(qiu)。我國總體還(huan)處于工業化(hua)后(hou)期(qi)(qi)、城(cheng)鎮化(hua)快速(su)推進期(qi)(qi)，未(wei)來電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力需(xu)求(qiu)仍有較大的(de)增(zeng)長(chang)空間，特(te)別是隨(sui)著再電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)進程的(de)推進，全社會用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)范圍不斷拓展(zhan)(zhan)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力需(xu)求(qiu)將保持剛性增(zeng)長(chang)，增(zeng)速(su)逐步放緩，但增(zeng)量規模依然可觀。清(qing)(qing)潔(jie)能源(yuan)雖然發展(zhan)(zhan)迅速(su)，但還(huan)不足(zu)(zu)以(yi)滿(man)足(zu)(zu)快速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力需(xu)求(qiu)增(zeng)量。如果再電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)推進速(su)度過快，就需(xu)要新(xin)建大量煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)來填補缺口，這在一(yi)(yi)定程度上違(wei)背了(le)清(qing)(qing)潔(jie)低碳(tan)這一(yi)(yi)推進再電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)的(de)初衷。2016～2019年期(qi)(qi)間，我國電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力消費年均增(zeng)長(chang)3267億千瓦時(shi)，而(er)清(qing)(qing)潔(jie)能源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量年均增(zeng)長(chang)1714億千瓦時(shi)，清(qing)(qing)潔(jie)能源(yuan)僅能滿(man)足(zu)(zu)52.5%的(de)新(xin)增(zeng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力需(xu)求(qiu)。

再電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化對電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統靈活柔性、智能互(hu)(hu)動、安(an)全(quan)可控提(ti)出更(geng)高(gao)要(yao)(yao)(yao)求。未來清潔能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)不僅要(yao)(yao)(yao)滿足電(dian)(dian)(dian)力需(xu)求增量，還要(yao)(yao)(yao)滿足煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)退出的存量缺口。風電(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽能發電(dian)(dian)(dian)等間歇(xie)性電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)大規模(mo)、高(gao)比例并網(wang)，對電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)安(an)全(quan)運行、電(dian)(dian)(dian)量消納提(ti)出了挑戰。需(xu)要(yao)(yao)(yao)加強電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)互(hu)(hu)聯、提(ti)高(gao)靈活調(diao)節能力，依托大電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)和(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力市場，大范圍(wei)內優化配置(zhi)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)。另一(yi)方面(mian)，再電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化促使電(dian)(dian)(dian)動汽(qi)車(che)、虛(xu)擬電(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)、分布式能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)等交互(hu)(hu)式能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)設(she)施廣泛(fan)接入，以及(ji)綜(zong)合能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)服務等新(xin)型(xing)需(xu)求大量涌現(xian)，使得(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)負荷(he)預(yu)測和(he)(he)潮(chao)流控制更(geng)為復(fu)雜，對電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統智能互(hu)(hu)動水平(ping)也提(ti)出了更(geng)高(gao)要(yao)(yao)(yao)求。

電能(neng)替(ti)(ti)代(dai)的(de)經(jing)濟性(xing)和可(ke)持續性(xing)有待提高。“十三五”時(shi)(shi)期(qi)，我國大力推(tui)進電能(neng)替(ti)(ti)代(dai)，在一系列(lie)優惠政策(ce)的(de)推(tui)動下，預計能(neng)夠完成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)7000億～8000億千瓦時(shi)(shi)替(ti)(ti)代(dai)電量(liang)，但后續深入推(tui)進將面臨(lin)挑戰。在技術(shu)層面，電鍋爐、電動汽車、熱泵等技術(shu)正逐步成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)熟，電能(neng)在工業、交通、建筑等領域(yu)的(de)可(ke)利用范圍不斷擴大，目前(qian)僅在航空、航運領域(yu)尚未形成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)較有前(qian)景的(de)技術(shu)，因此從功能(neng)可(ke)實(shi)現的(de)角度來(lai)講，電能(neng)替(ti)(ti)代(dai)加(jia)速潛力大。

但是，在經濟(ji)層(ceng)面，綜合考慮(lv)全壽命周期內投資、運行、維護等(deng)成(cheng)本，電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)在居民采暖、工業高溫高壓(ya)熱(re)蒸汽(qi)、中(zhong)(zhong)重型卡車(che)長途運輸等(deng)場(chang)景的(de)應用中(zhong)(zhong)，經濟(ji)性欠佳(jia)。從等(deng)效熱(re)值(zhi)成(cheng)本來看(kan)，當前電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)成(cheng)本約為燃煤的(de)2.4～4.8倍，極大(da)限制電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)替代推進速度，如(ru)果計入能(neng)(neng)源環境成(cheng)本，電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)替代的(de)競爭力(li)將(jiang)有(you)所提升。

我國再電氣化的發展趨勢及情景分析

展(zhan)(zhan)望未來，我國將在(zai)全面建成小康社(she)會的基礎上，開啟全面建設社(she)會主義現代(dai)化國家(jia)新征程。我國經(jing)濟將沿著高(gao)質量發展(zhan)(zhan)方向(xiang)不斷前進，能源生產(chan)和消費革命加快向(xiang)縱深推進，新能源技(ji)(ji)術(shu)和電能替代(dai)技(ji)(ji)術(shu)的經(jing)濟性和競爭力不斷提升，再電氣化將迎來重要發展(zhan)(zhan)機遇期。

電(dian)(dian)(dian)力消費持續增長和清潔能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)規模(mo)快速(su)擴張將(jiang)推(tui)動能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)生產側電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化水(shui)平大幅提升(sheng)。未來隨著我國經濟持續從高能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)強度的(de)制造業向低(di)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)強度的(de)服務(wu)業轉型，加之能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)效(xiao)提升(sheng)政策的(de)實施(shi)，我國一次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消費增速(su)將(jiang)大幅放緩。電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)作為清潔高效(xiao)的(de)二次能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)，是支撐未來信息社會和數字經濟的(de)最重(zhong)要的(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)品種。

我(wo)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力消(xiao)(xiao)費將(jiang)保持較快增長，增速顯(xian)著快于一(yi)(yi)(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源消(xiao)(xiao)費，這將(jiang)推(tui)動發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源占一(yi)(yi)(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源消(xiao)(xiao)費比重(zhong)新一(yi)(yi)(yi)輪快速提升。另一(yi)(yi)(yi)方面，在(zai)技術進(jin)步和(he)國(guo)家政(zheng)策的推(tui)動下，各類清(qing)潔能(neng)(neng)(neng)源特別是風能(neng)(neng)(neng)、太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)等新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源通過轉化為電(dian)(dian)力的方式(shi)大(da)規模開發(fa)(fa)利(li)用，也將(jiang)促進(jin)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源占一(yi)(yi)(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源消(xiao)(xiao)費比重(zhong)進(jin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)步提升。預計(ji)2035年我(wo)國(guo)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源占一(yi)(yi)(yi)次(ci)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源消(xiao)(xiao)費比重(zhong)將(jiang)達到55%左(zuo)右。

電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)替代深入推進和新興(xing)電(dian)(dian)力消(xiao)費(fei)快速增長(chang)將(jiang)(jiang)推動(dong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源消(xiao)費(fei)側(ce)電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)水平大(da)幅提(ti)高。未來(lai)隨著電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)替代技術(shu)的競爭力日益增強，超大(da)規模(mo)的用(yong)電(dian)(dian)潛(qian)力將(jiang)(jiang)不斷釋放(fang)，電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)將(jiang)(jiang)是未來(lai)終端能(neng)(neng)(neng)源中增長(chang)最(zui)快的能(neng)(neng)(neng)源品種，電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)占終端能(neng)(neng)(neng)源消(xiao)費(fei)的比重將(jiang)(jiang)不斷提(ti)升(sheng)，并逐步(bu)占據終端用(yong)能(neng)(neng)(neng)的核心地位。工業部門隨著自動(dong)化(hua)、智能(neng)(neng)(neng)化(hua)水平提(ti)升(sheng)以及電(dian)(dian)供能(neng)(neng)(neng)設備技術(shu)經濟性提(ti)高，電(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)水平將(jiang)(jiang)穩步(bu)提(ti)升(sheng)。

交通部門(men)隨(sui)著(zhu)電(dian)動汽車(che)大規模普及以及電(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)軌(gui)道交通的持(chi)(chi)續(xu)發(fa)(fa)展，電(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)水(shui)平(ping)將大幅提(ti)升。建筑部門(men)隨(sui)著(zhu)電(dian)采暖、電(dian)制冷、電(dian)炊具、電(dian)熱水(shui)設備的不(bu)斷(duan)(duan)推廣應用(yong)，電(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)水(shui)平(ping)將持(chi)(chi)續(xu)提(ti)升。此外，數字(zi)經濟產(chan)業加速發(fa)(fa)展，可再(zai)生能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)制氫等新產(chan)業不(bu)斷(duan)(duan)成熟壯大，將進一步促進全社(she)會(hui)電(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)水(shui)平(ping)提(ti)升。預計2035年(nian)我國電(dian)能占終端能源(yuan)消費的比重有望達到34%左右。

清(qing)潔能源由增量(liang)替(ti)代轉向(xiang)存量(liang)替(ti)代將(jiang)推動(dong)電(dian)(dian)力供應(ying)清(qing)潔低碳(tan)化水平(ping)大(da)幅(fu)提升。未來隨著(zhu)新能源技術的(de)日(ri)益成熟、系統靈(ling)活(huo)性的(de)不斷(duan)提升和(he)制度體系逐步(bu)完善，風電(dian)(dian)和(he)光伏(fu)(fu)發電(dian)(dian)的(de)經(jing)濟(ji)性和(he)競爭力將(jiang)不斷(duan)提升。未來風電(dian)(dian)和(he)光伏(fu)(fu)發電(dian)(dian)在全面實現平(ping)價上網的(de)基(ji)礎上，將(jiang)逐步(bu)發展(zhan)成為比煤電(dian)(dian)還經(jing)濟(ji)的(de)發電(dian)(dian)方式，進而推動(dong)清(qing)潔能源在2030年之前進入大(da)規模存量(liang)替(ti)代的(de)發展(zhan)階段。

這將(jiang)(jiang)不僅大(da)幅提升電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)應(ying)清潔(jie)低碳化(hua)水平，同時還有助于推動電(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統供(gong)應(ying)成本降低。此外，氣電(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)和水電(dian)(dian)將(jiang)(jiang)繼續保持穩步發(fa)(fa)展的趨勢，也將(jiang)(jiang)推動電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)應(ying)清潔(jie)低碳化(hua)水平的提升。預計2035年(nian)我國清潔(jie)能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量占(zhan)比(bi)達到(dao)55%左右，新能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)量占(zhan)比(bi)將(jiang)(jiang)達到(dao)25%左右。

我國再電氣化的情景分析

按照(zhao)我國到2035年基本實現社會主義現代化的目(mu)標(biao)、加快推(tui)進生態(tai)文明建設(she)和《能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)生產(chan)和消(xiao)費革命戰略(lve)（2016~2030）》的要求(qiu)，結合(he)新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)技術(shu)和電(dian)能(neng)(neng)替代技術(shu)發展趨勢(shi)，對未來再電(dian)氣化進程設(she)定兩種不同發展情景。

基(ji)準情(qing)景：該情(qing)景描繪了未來我(wo)國按照既(ji)定(ding)時間表和路(lu)線圖，如期(qi)實現(xian)社會主義現(xian)代化(hua)(hua)目標。我(wo)國經濟保持高質(zhi)量發展(zhan)，生(sheng)態文明建設和能源生(sheng)產(chan)和消費革命持續推進(jin)，新能源技(ji)術(shu)和電能替代技(ji)術(shu)的經濟性和競爭力不斷提升，再電氣(qi)化(hua)(hua)進(jin)程沿(yan)著當(dang)前路(lu)徑(jing)穩(wen)步(bu)推進(jin)，電力供(gong)應(ying)清潔化(hua)(hua)轉型穩(wen)步(bu)推進(jin)。

加速(su)再(zai)電(dian)(dian)氣(qi)化情景：該情景描繪(hui)了我國在確(que)保完成(cheng)2035年基本(ben)實現(xian)社會主義現(xian)代化目標的前期下，更(geng)加強(qiang)化生態文明(ming)建設，能源(yuan)生產和消費革(ge)命(ming)加速(su)推進(jin)，再(zai)電(dian)(dian)氣(qi)化上(shang)升為(wei)國家戰略大力(li)推進(jin)，同時(shi)新能源(yuan)技術(shu)和電(dian)(dian)能替(ti)代技術(shu)快速(su)突破(po)，再(zai)電(dian)(dian)氣(qi)化進(jin)程(cheng)加速(su)推進(jin)，電(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)應清潔化轉(zhuan)型(xing)快速(su)推進(jin)。

在基(ji)準(zhun)情景下，2035年我國電(dian)(dian)力(li)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)總量將(jiang)增長到(dao)11.4萬億千瓦時左(zuo)右，發電(dian)(dian)能源(yuan)占(zhan)一次(ci)能源(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)將(jiang)提升到(dao)55%左(zuo)右，電(dian)(dian)能占(zhan)終(zhong)端能源(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)比(bi)重(zhong)(zhong)將(jiang)提升到(dao)34%左(zuo)右，清(qing)潔能源(yuan)和新能源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)量占(zhan)比(bi)將(jiang)分別提升到(dao)55%和25%左(zuo)右。

在(zai)加速再電氣化情景下，2035年(nian)我國電力消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)總量將(jiang)增(zeng)長到12.2萬億千瓦時左右(you)(you)，發電能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)占一次(ci)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)比重將(jiang)提升到60%左右(you)(you)，電能(neng)(neng)占終端能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)比重將(jiang)提升到40%左右(you)(you)，清潔能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)和(he)新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發電量占比將(jiang)分別提升到62%和(he)30%左右(you)(you)。

我國再電氣化的實施路徑

能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)生(sheng)產側堅持“以(yi)電(dian)(dian)為中心”，加(jia)(jia)速推進(jin)清潔(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)氣化，逐步實現對(dui)化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的增量替代(dai)和存量替代(dai)。加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)集中式規模(mo)化清潔(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)基(ji)地(di)(di)的開(kai)發(fa)(fa)。水(shui)電(dian)(dian)加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)建設金(jin)沙江下游、大(da)渡河、雅礱江等水(shui)電(dian)(dian)基(ji)地(di)(di)。風電(dian)(dian)加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)建設三北地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)大(da)型陸上(shang)風電(dian)(dian)基(ji)地(di)(di)以(yi)及東(dong)南(nan)沿(yan)海(hai)(hai)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)大(da)型海(hai)(hai)上(shang)風電(dian)(dian)基(ji)地(di)(di)。太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)建設新(xin)疆、西藏(zang)、青海(hai)(hai)、甘肅、內(nei)蒙(meng)古等大(da)型太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)基(ji)地(di)(di)。核電(dian)(dian)加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)啟(qi)動第三代(dai)核電(dian)(dian)項目，確保(bao)安全(quan)高(gao)效穩步發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)。此(ci)外，加(jia)(jia)強輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)通道建設，提高(gao)跨區(qu)(qu)輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力。完(wan)善清潔(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)相關政策(ce)體系(xi)，嚴(yan)格執行可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力消納(na)保(bao)障機制(zhi)，建立健全(quan)可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)市(shi)場(chang)化交易機制(zhi)等。

能(neng)(neng)源消(xiao)費側堅持“以電(dian)(dian)(dian)為優先”，廣泛深入實施電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)替(ti)代(dai)(dai)(dai)，努力實現能(neng)(neng)源消(xiao)費高(gao)度電(dian)(dian)(dian)氣化(hua)(hua)。技術進(jin)步是推動電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)替(ti)代(dai)(dai)(dai)的根本力量。通過加大電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)替(ti)代(dai)(dai)(dai)技術研發(fa)力度，促進(jin)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)替(ti)代(dai)(dai)(dai)技術快速迭代(dai)(dai)(dai)和成本降低。加大電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)替(ti)代(dai)(dai)(dai)實施力度，按照差異(yi)化(hua)(hua)原則科學(xue)制定電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)替(ti)代(dai)(dai)(dai)規劃(hua)，優化(hua)(hua)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)替(ti)代(dai)(dai)(dai)時序，實施電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)替(ti)代(dai)(dai)(dai)項目和配電(dian)(dian)(dian)網建設。

電(dian)能(neng)替代較有前景(jing)的技術(shu)領域有：工(gong)業電(dian)鍋爐(lu)(lu)、電(dian)窯爐(lu)(lu)應用(yong)于工(gong)業產品加工(gong)工(gong)藝過程；電(dian)動(dong)汽車應用(yong)于公(gong)路客(ke)運(yun)和部(bu)分短(duan)途(tu)貨運(yun)領域；電(dian)（蓄）熱(re)鍋爐(lu)(lu)應用(yong)于建筑(zhu)密集小區的集中供暖；熱(re)泵應用(yong)于大型公(gong)共建筑(zhu)供熱(re)。此外，可再生能(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)解水制氫(qing)替代化石能(neng)源(yuan)重整(zheng)制氫(qing)也具有發展潛力。

以數字化(hua)賦能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)，加(jia)快(kuai)構(gou)建(jian)適應大(da)(da)(da)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)高比例新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)并(bing)網(wang)和多樣化(hua)交互(hu)式(shi)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)需(xu)求(qiu)的(de)新(xin)一代(dai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)。推動(dong)互(hu)聯網(wang)、大(da)(da)(da)數據、云計算(suan)、人工(gong)智(zhi)能(neng)等現代(dai)信息(xi)技術與電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)深度融(rong)合，增強源(yuan)(yuan)網(wang)荷之間(jian)的(de)智(zhi)能(neng)互(hu)動(dong)，實現更(geng)大(da)(da)(da)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)的(de)清潔能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)消納，同時滿足更(geng)加(jia)多樣化(hua)、交互(hu)式(shi)的(de)用能(neng)需(xu)求(qiu)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)方面，加(jia)快(kuai)推進(jin)智(zhi)慧電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠建(jian)設(she)，各類電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)能(neng)夠自(zi)動(dong)采集(ji)、智(zhi)能(neng)分(fen)析與靈活(huo)控(kong)制(zhi)，實現大(da)(da)(da)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)的(de)智(zhi)能(neng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)與友好并(bing)網(wang)。

電(dian)(dian)(dian)網方(fang)面，突破高電(dian)(dian)(dian)壓等級柔(rou)性輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)、直流(liu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網、大(da)容量(liang)海底電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜、超導輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)等先進輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)和智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)網技術，大(da)幅提(ti)升電(dian)(dian)(dian)網資源配置能(neng)(neng)力(li)、靈(ling)活(huo)調節能(neng)(neng)力(li)和安全(quan)穩定控制能(neng)(neng)力(li)。負荷方(fang)面，大(da)力(li)推(tui)廣智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)表(biao)、智(zhi)慧(hui)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)系統、合(he)同(tong)能(neng)(neng)源管理、需求側響應等技術和模式，提(ti)高終端電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)利用效率。