日前,國家發(fa)展(zhan)改革委就全面放開(kai)經(jing)營(ying)性電(dian)力(li)用(yong)(yong)戶(hu)發(fa)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)計劃(hua)發(fa)放通(tong)知(以下簡稱“通(tong)知”),通(tong)知就全面放開(kai)經(jing)營(ying)性電(dian)力(li)用(yong)(yong)戶(hu)發(fa)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)計劃(hua)、支持中小用(yong)(yong)戶(hu)參與市場化交(jiao)易、健全全面放開(kai)經(jing)營(ying)性發(fa)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)計劃(hua)后的價(jia)格形成(cheng)機(ji)制、切(qie)實做好(hao)公(gong)益性用(yong)(yong)電(dian)的供應保障及規劃(hua)內清(qing)潔電(dian)源的發(fa)電(dian)消納保障等工作進行了具體部署。
信達證券認為,電(dian)(dian)改進(jin)入“深水區”,國改試點正當(dang)時。國內電(dian)(dian)力(li)供給呈(cheng)現電(dian)(dian)量寬(kuan)松(song)、電(dian)(dian)力(li)緊(jin)張的(de)局(ju)面,電(dian)(dian)力(li)市場化交易(yi)比(bi)例逐(zhu)年(nian)抬升,電(dian)(dian)力(li)的(de)定(ding)價方(fang)式由政府規定(ding)的(de)上網電(dian)(dian)價,逐(zhu)步(bu)轉向了市場電(dian)(dian)價,同時,“五大(da)四(si)小兩網”正逐(zhu)步(bu)參與國改、混改,這些積(ji)極(ji)的(de)變化有利于破解(jie)壟斷機(ji)制帶來的(de)效率低、成本高企等難(nan)題,電(dian)(dian)企盈利能力(li)將得到提升。
通過市場化交易降成本
國金證券(quan)分(fen)析師孫春旭認為,通知旨在通過市場化(hua)交(jiao)易(yi)降成(cheng)本,提升制造業競(jing)爭(zheng)力(li)(li)(li),推動用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量增長(chang)。經營性電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶發用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)計劃(hua)是繼2018年放開(kai)煤炭、鋼(gang)鐵、有色、建材4個(ge)行業電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶發用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)計劃(hua)后,推動除(chu)居民、農(nong)業、重要公用(yong)(yong)(yong)事(shi)業和(he)公益性服務等行業電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶以及電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)生產供(gong)應所必(bi)需(xu)的廠用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)和(he)線損之外的其他電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)戶的全電(dian)(dian)量與交(jiao)易(yi)。
孫春旭分析,具體(ti)看,通知的目的有二(er):一(yi)是深(shen)化電(dian)(dian)力(li)改(gai)革,擴大(da)電(dian)(dian)力(li)市場(chang)化交(jiao)易。二(er)是通過建立市場(chang)化價(jia)(jia)格(ge)形成(cheng)機制降(jiang)(jiang)成(cheng)本(ben)。中美貿易摩擦背(bei)景下,降(jiang)(jiang)能(neng)源成(cheng)本(ben)有利于提(ti)振制造業(ye)競爭(zheng)力(li)。通知規(gui)定鼓(gu)勵電(dian)(dian)力(li)用(yong)戶(hu)(hu)和發電(dian)(dian)企業(ye)自(zi)主(zhu)(zhu)協商(shang)簽訂合同時,以(yi)靈活可浮動(dong)的形式確(que)定具體(ti)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)。此舉意味著(zhu)售電(dian)(dian)用(yong)戶(hu)(hu)可以(yi)簽訂長期浮動(dong)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)合同降(jiang)(jiang)低(di)發電(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)。同時,由于通知涉及的放(fang)開(kai)的電(dian)(dian)力(li)用(yong)戶(hu)(hu)主(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)(yao)為(wei)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)較高的一(yi)般工商(shang)業(ye)用(yong)戶(hu)(hu),放(fang)開(kai)后電(dian)(dian)網(wang)不再享受這部(bu)分用(yong)戶(hu)(hu)的購銷(xiao)差價(jia)(jia),僅獲取輸配電(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia),因此,減少電(dian)(dian)網(wang)的中間環節(jie)成(cheng)本(ben)將成(cheng)為(wei)用(yong)戶(hu)(hu)降(jiang)(jiang)成(cheng)本(ben)的重(zhong)要(yao)(yao)來源。電(dian)(dian)力(li)成(cheng)本(ben)下降(jiang)(jiang)有利于提(ti)升制造業(ye)競爭(zheng)力(li),提(ti)振下游(you)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)長,提(ti)高供電(dian)(dian)設備利用(yong)率。
電力板塊具備“洼地”特征
孫春旭指出,電(dian)力(li)市場化的主要(yao)目的是還原電(dian)力(li)的商品屬性,由電(dian)力(li)供(gong)需平衡發現價(jia)格。預計浮動價(jia)格或將使得(de)電(dian)價(jia)呈現淡季低(di)價(jia)旺(wang)季高價(jia)的格局,更好地(di)反(fan)映(ying)電(dian)力(li)供(gong)需及(ji)發電(dian)成(cheng)本(ben)。保障清(qing)(qing)(qing)潔(jie)能源消(xiao)納,降(jiang)低(di)棄水、棄風、棄光(guang)。通知鼓勵經營性電(dian)力(li)用戶(hu)與核電(dian)、水電(dian)、風電(dian)、太陽能發電(dian)等清(qing)(qing)(qing)潔(jie)能源開展市場化交(jiao)易(yi),這一措(cuo)施(shi)利好具備外送條件(jian)的清(qing)(qing)(qing)潔(jie)能源消(xiao)納,推薦(jian)華(hua)能水電(dian),國(guo)投電(dian)力(li)。
光大證券分析(xi)師(shi)王(wang)威指出,綜合估(gu)值、業績增速和(he)近一個季度(du)的(de)(de)相對漲幅來看,電(dian)力(li)板塊具備了行(xing)業輪(lun)動(dong)所需要的(de)(de)“洼地”特征(zheng),建(jian)議(yi)在(zai)電(dian)力(li)板塊中積極尋找(zhao)具有基本面支撐且具備改革(ge)、重組預(yu)期的(de)(de)二(er)、三線火電(dian)標的(de)(de)進(jin)行(xing)配置,并積極布(bu)局行(xing)業板塊輪(lun)動(dong)帶來的(de)(de)一線標的(de)(de)補(bu)漲機會。
此外,在2019年厄爾尼諾年有助于水電(dian)(dian)利用小時提升,且三季度A股(gu)方向不明之際,增(zeng)加大型水電(dian)(dian)公司配置(zhi)。推薦長(chang)源電(dian)(dian)力、京能電(dian)(dian)力,建議關注大型水電(dian)(dian)公司長(chang)江電(dian)(dian)力、國投電(dian)(dian)力、華能水電(dian)(dian)等,以及具(ju)備(bei)改革潛(qian)力的相關個股(gu)。