中(zhong)國(guo)太陽能熱(re)發(fa)電(dian)大會合作(zuo)期刊——《電(dian)網技術(shu)》2022年第8期刊發(fa)了國(guo)家電(dian)網有限公司西北(bei)分部(bu)市場(chang)交易六(liu)部(bu)主任孫(sun)驍強等所著(zhu)的《新型電(dian)力系統中(zhong)光熱(re)電(dian)站完全(quan)替代火(huo)電(dian)規劃研究》論(lun)文，經得(de)《電(dian)網技術(shu)》和作(zuo)者(zhe)同(tong)意，轉載此(ci)文如(ru)下(xia)：
摘要
光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站可(ke)以(yi)平穩發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，但仍(reng)屬于(yu)限能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站，不能(neng)全(quan)(quan)容(rong)量(liang)參(can)加電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)平衡，季節(jie)性電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)支撐能(neng)力(li)(li)受限。該(gai)文基(ji)于(yu)光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站日等效(xiao)保證小時數(shu)和系統高峰時段需求提出(chu)了一(yi)種評(ping)估光熱發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)替代火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機能(neng)力(li)(li)的(de)(de)方(fang)法(fa)，進而給出(chu)一(yi)種通(tong)過增加應急鍋爐(lu)備用(yong)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)以(yi)完全(quan)(quan)替代火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機應對極(ji)端天氣和季節(jie)性缺電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)解決方(fang)法(fa)。青海電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統的(de)(de)算例表明，光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站通(tong)過增加應急備用(yong)鍋爐(lu)可(ke)應對極(ji)端天氣和季節(jie)性電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)供應的(de)(de)不平衡，做(zuo)到全(quan)(quan)容(rong)量(liang)全(quan)(quan)時段替代火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機，同(tong)時保證發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)中(zhong)絕大(da)部分(fen)仍(reng)是可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生能(neng)源。論文的(de)(de)研(yan)究成(cheng)果，可(ke)助力(li)(li)光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站實現以(yi)少量(liang)低碳能(neng)源帶動(dong)大(da)規模可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生能(neng)源開(kai)發(fa)(fa)，在新型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統中(zhong)具有重(zhong)要示范意義。
0 引言
隨著國家雙碳(tan)戰略(lve)目(mu)標(biao)的(de)(de)(de)實施，我國新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)開(kai)發規模繼續(xu)擴大(da)，火(huo)電建設空間將進一步壓縮(suo)，而系(xi)(xi)統負荷仍(reng)在穩步增長，風(feng)電及光(guang)伏的(de)(de)(de)波動性(xing)使系(xi)(xi)統難以實現全時(shi)段電力電量平衡(heng)。可再生能(neng)源(yuan)發電的(de)(de)(de)季節性(xing)不(bu)平衡(heng)是電力系(xi)(xi)統中(zhong)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)占比(bi)升高(gao)到(dao)一定階段必然面臨的(de)(de)(de)問題。
新型電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)(tong)需要尋(xun)求能(neng)(neng)(neng)夠(gou)替(ti)代(dai)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)穩定(ding)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)(yuan)，西北(bei)地區光熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)本(ben)身具(ju)有一(yi)定(ding)替(ti)代(dai)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)，但(dan)受太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)直(zhi)射(she)輻(fu)射(she)影響(xiang)，在極端(duan)天氣(qi)(qi)無法獲得足夠(gou)的(de)熱(re)(re)能(neng)(neng)(neng)，連續極端(duan)天氣(qi)(qi)不平(ping)(ping)衡問(wen)題更加(jia)突出。目前(qian)，光熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)無法全(quan)容(rong)量(liang)參加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)平(ping)(ping)衡，替(ti)代(dai)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)大打折扣。本(ben)文研(yan)究通過增加(jia)應急燃氣(qi)(qi)鍋爐(lu)備用發電(dian)(dian)(dian)，可(ke)在極端(duan)天氣(qi)(qi)補充熱(re)(re)能(neng)(neng)(neng)，甚至(zhi)可(ke)以應對系統(tong)(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)供(gong)應的(de)季節性(xing)不平(ping)(ping)衡，做到全(quan)容(rong)量(liang)全(quan)時段全(quan)功能(neng)(neng)(neng)替(ti)代(dai)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機，保障電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)供(gong)應；同時保證發電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)中絕大部分仍是可(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)，實現以少量(liang)低碳(tan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)帶(dai)動大規模可(ke)再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)開(kai)發，在新型電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)(tong)中具(ju)有重要示范意義。
1 新(xin)型電力(li)系統(tong)電力(li)保障形勢
傳統(tong)(tong)電力系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)以火(huo)電、水電等常(chang)規電源(yuan)為(wei)(wei)主，調(diao)峰(feng)需求主要是(shi)負(fu)荷波動(dong)引起，隨(sui)著新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)滲(shen)透率的(de)不斷提高(gao)，調(diao)峰(feng)需求也在(zai)發生變化(hua)，高(gao)比例新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)調(diao)峰(feng)需求主要是(shi)為(wei)(wei)了滿(man)足新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)接納需求。與此同(tong)時，在(zai)國家雙(shuang)碳(tan)戰略的(de)推進過(guo)程(cheng)中，火(huo)電發展空間大大壓縮，導(dao)致為(wei)(wei)滿(man)足系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)最大電力需求的(de)常(chang)規電源(yuan)電力供應也日趨緊張。可以預見，以新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)為(wei)(wei)主體的(de)電力系(xi)(xi)(xi)統(tong)(tong)同(tong)時面臨向(xiang)(xiang)上調(diao)峰(feng)和向(xiang)(xiang)下調(diao)峰(feng)2個方面的(de)需求，尤其是(shi)向(xiang)(xiang)上調(diao)峰(feng)關系(xi)(xi)(xi)到電力保障問題顯得尤為(wei)(wei)重(zhong)要。
受(shou)資(zi)源(yuan)約(yue)束(shu)的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)（限(xian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)）向(xiang)上調(diao)峰(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)的發揮除了(le)跟(gen)機組自身調(diao)峰(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)有(you)關(guan)外(wai)，還與資(zi)源(yuan)決定(ding)的發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量密切(qie)相關(guan)，不同電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)的向(xiang)上調(diao)峰(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)存在(zai)較大(da)(da)差異(yi)。如水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)最(zui)大(da)(da)出(chu)(chu)力(li)(li)(li)理論上可以(yi)達到預想出(chu)(chu)力(li)(li)(li)，但(dan)實際往往受(shou)來水(shui)約(yue)束(shu)不能(neng)(neng)(neng)達到上述(shu)最(zui)大(da)(da)值，比(bi)如青海水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)冬季受(shou)來水(shui)影響最(zui)大(da)(da)出(chu)(chu)力(li)(li)(li)僅為其裝機的50%~70%；儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)在(zai)系統(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量不足時也難(nan)以(yi)發揮作用；光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)類似，在(zai)太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)資(zi)源(yuan)不好時，最(zui)大(da)(da)出(chu)(chu)力(li)(li)(li)也會受(shou)限(xian)。因(yin)此，隨(sui)著新型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系統(tong)中限(xian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)逐步(bu)增加(jia)，其參加(jia)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)平(ping)衡能(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)(li)(li)不足，再(zai)加(jia)上季節性資(zi)源(yuan)不平(ping)衡，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)系統(tong)將面臨電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)保障缺乏穩(wen)定(ding)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)支(zhi)撐的嚴峻形勢。國外(wai)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網事(shi)故情(qing)況梳理見表1。
國(guo)外高(gao)比例新能(neng)(neng)源系(xi)統發(fa)生的(de)(de)(de)事(shi)故教(jiao)訓表明，由于電(dian)力(li)無法大規模(mo)存儲的(de)(de)(de)特性(xing)，以(yi)光伏、風電(dian)為主的(de)(de)(de)新能(neng)(neng)源不能(neng)(neng)完(wan)全替代常規穩定發(fa)電(dian)機(ji)組，難以(yi)應對極(ji)端天氣事(shi)件導致(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)力(li)供(gong)應缺口(kou)，加(jia)劇了系(xi)統資源緊張時(shi)段(duan)的(de)(de)(de)供(gong)應挑戰，亟須尋找既清潔(jie)又能(neng)(neng)穩定發(fa)電(dian)的(de)(de)(de)調節電(dian)源，保障電(dian)力(li)系(xi)統全時(shi)段(duan)安全可靠供(gong)電(dian)。
在國家雙碳(tan)目標背景下(xia)，光(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)站具備替代火電(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)潛力，通過增加應急鍋(guo)爐備用發電(dian)(dian)應對極端天氣(qi)，可(ke)以全容量(liang)(liang)(liang)替代火電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機，作為季節性調峰電(dian)(dian)源滿足長(chang)時間尺度電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)平(ping)衡需要。本(ben)文首先基于光(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)站出力特性和系統高峰時段需求(qiu)，分析(xi)光(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)站替代火電(dian)(dian)能力，然后研究(jiu)提升其保(bao)證出力的(de)(de)措施，提出測(ce)算(suan)(suan)光(guang)熱電(dian)(dian)站應急備用發電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)計(ji)算(suan)(suan)方法(fa)，最后通過算(suan)(suan)例進行驗證。
2 光熱電(dian)站完全替代(dai)火電(dian)規劃研究
2.1 光熱(re)電站(zhan)替代(dai)火電能力分析(xi)
電力系統中(zhong)一(yi)般(ban)以滿(man)足(zu)高峰負荷時段電力平(ping)衡(heng)確(que)定系統火電裝(zhuang)機(ji)需求，光熱電站要參加電力平(ping)衡(heng)(替代火電裝(zhuang)機(ji))也需要保(bao)障高峰負荷時段電力需求。
由于光(guang)(guang)熱電(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)與太陽直射(she)輻射(she)密(mi)切相(xiang)關，某些(xie)天(tian)(tian)光(guang)(guang)照資源較(jiao)好時(shi)(shi)，再(zai)加(jia)上儲熱裝置蓄熱，光(guang)(guang)熱電(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)較(jiao)多，高峰負荷(he)時(shi)(shi)段(duan)可(ke)保(bao)證系統電(dian)力需求，全(quan)容(rong)量(liang)參加(jia)電(dian)力平衡；而在陰天(tian)(tian)或多云天(tian)(tian)氣(qi)，光(guang)(guang)熱電(dian)站發(fa)電(dian)量(liang)很小，極端(duan)天(tian)(tian)氣(qi)光(guang)(guang)熱電(dian)站可(ke)能(neng)出力為零，光(guang)(guang)熱電(dian)站裝機(ji)不能(neng)得到充(chong)分利用，高峰負荷(he)時(shi)(shi)段(duan)不能(neng)有效(xiao)參加(jia)電(dian)力平衡。
系(xi)統可靠性保證(zheng)率不(bu)同(tong)，光熱電(dian)(dian)站參加(jia)平(ping)衡(heng)容量也不(bu)一樣。為了(le)提高(gao)光熱電(dian)(dian)站參加(jia)平(ping)衡(heng)容量比例(li)，可以結(jie)合系(xi)統需(xu)要(yao)，通過增加(jia)應急鍋爐(lu)備用發(fa)電(dian)(dian)，使得光熱電(dian)(dian)站能夠完全替代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)裝機，滿(man)足(zu)系(xi)統電(dian)(dian)力(li)保障需(xu)要(yao)。
2.2 光熱電站應對季節性(xing)缺電能力分(fen)析
新能源出力(li)具有(you)(you)季(ji)節(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)不(bu)(bu)均(jun)衡(heng)(heng)性(xing)(xing)，隨(sui)著新能源裝機占比不(bu)(bu)斷提高，新型(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系統的(de)季(ji)節(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)性(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量不(bu)(bu)平(ping)衡(heng)(heng)凸(tu)顯，某(mou)些月(yue)份資源較差的(de)情況(kuang)(kuang)下，系統電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量缺額緊缺，目前(qian)來看在火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)建設空間(jian)逐(zhu)步壓(ya)縮的(de)背景下，尚未(wei)有(you)(you)可(ke)解決(jue)季(ji)節(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)性(xing)(xing)不(bu)(bu)平(ping)衡(heng)(heng)的(de)有(you)(you)效手段。光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)站自(zi)身雖然受資源影(ying)響也存(cun)在季(ji)節(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)性(xing)(xing)不(bu)(bu)均(jun)衡(heng)(heng)情況(kuang)(kuang)，但(dan)可(ke)以(yi)(yi)通過增加(jia)應急鍋爐備用發電(dian)(dian)(dian)以(yi)(yi)完全替代火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機，完美解決(jue)季(ji)節(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)性(xing)(xing)不(bu)(bu)均(jun)衡(heng)(heng)問題。
新型電(dian)力(li)系統中，光熱(re)完全替代火電(dian)分(fen)析步驟如下。
3 算(suan)例
以青海(hai)為例，預計2030年(nian)青海(hai)省(sheng)全社會用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量達到1100億kW·h，最高發電(dian)(dian)負荷(he)15500MW。青海(hai)新能源規劃總裝機約57640MW，其(qi)中光(guang)伏34000MW、風電(dian)(dian)16530MW、光(guang)熱5210MW。
3.1 光熱電站(zhan)出(chu)力特性分(fen)析
青(qing)海海西地(di)區(qu)光熱(re)(re)(re)(re)資源(yuan)(yuan)豐富，烏圖(tu)(tu)、冷(leng)湖(hu)、德令哈(ha)(ha)地(di)區(qu)光熱(re)(re)(re)(re)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)季節性明顯[17]。以(yi)100MW光熱(re)(re)(re)(re)電(dian)站(zhan)(鏡場面積148萬m2，太陽倍數(shu)(shu)2.9，儲熱(re)(re)(re)(re)時長15h，發(fa)(fa)電(dian)機功率100MW，汽輪機功率217MWt，集熱(re)(re)(re)(re)器功率630MWt)為(wei)例(li)，根據典型年光照資源(yuan)(yuan)數(shu)(shu)據，模擬逐小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時出(chu)力(li)，并(bing)進行特性統計分(fen)析。圖(tu)(tu)1給(gei)出(chu)了海西地(di)區(qu)光熱(re)(re)(re)(re)電(dian)站(zhan)典型年內各月(yue)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)量分(fen)布，可以(yi)看出(chu)，2—4月(yue)、9—10月(yue)光熱(re)(re)(re)(re)電(dian)站(zhan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)量較(jiao)多，6—8月(yue)和(he)12月(yue)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)量較(jiao)少。圖(tu)(tu) 2給(gei)出(chu)了海西地(di)區(qu)(烏圖(tu)(tu)、冷(leng)湖(hu)和(he)德令哈(ha)(ha))光熱(re)(re)(re)(re)電(dian)站(zhan)典型年各月(yue)日等效(xiao)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時數(shu)(shu)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)于(yu)(yu)4h天(tian)數(shu)(shu)統計。可以(yi)看出(chu)，烏圖(tu)(tu)、冷(leng)湖(hu)和(he)德令哈(ha)(ha)地(di)區(qu)全年日光熱(re)(re)(re)(re)等效(xiao)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時數(shu)(shu)低于(yu)(yu)4h的天(tian)數(shu)(shu)分(fen)別(bie)為(wei)52、57、75天(tian)，在(zai)5—8月(yue)發(fa)(fa)生較(jiao)多。
圖1 海西地區光熱(re)電(dian)站(zhan)典型年內各月(yue)發電(dian)量分(fen)布
圖2 海西地區光熱(re)電站典型(xing)年各月(yue)日等效(xiao)發(fa)電小時數小于(yu)4h天(tian)數統計
3.2 光熱替代火電能(neng)力(li)分析
圖(tu)3給出了青海電(dian)網典型日負荷(he)曲線示意圖(tu)。可以看出，青海負荷(he)曲線較平，疊(die)加(jia)直流(liu)外送(song)曲線后，冬季晚(wan)高峰負荷(he)時(shi)段(duan)一般為(wei)18:00—21:00左右，因此，電(dian)源參加(jia)電(dian)力(li)平衡需保證晚(wan)高峰時(shi)段(duan)4~6h電(dian)力(li)需求。
圖3 青海電網典(dian)型日負荷曲(qu)線(xian)示(shi)意圖
光熱電(dian)站配(pei)置儲熱罐，考慮連續陰天情況，預留部分熱量(liang)跨日(ri)(ri)調節。光熱電(dian)站日(ri)(ri)發電(dian)量(liang)優化后，將日(ri)(ri)發電(dian)量(liang)從大到小排序(xu)，按系(xi)統要求保證率，確定光熱電(dian)站可調節日(ri)(ri)發電(dian)量(liang)。
表2給出(chu)了海西地(di)區(qu)光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)替代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)比例測(ce)(ce)算結果。圖(tu)4給出(chu)了海西烏圖(tu)地(di)區(qu)光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)日等(deng)(deng)效(xiao)(xiao)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)數分布示意圖(tu)。可(ke)以看出(chu)，根據(ju)前(qian)面方法(fa)測(ce)(ce)算，按(an)95%保(bao)(bao)證(zheng)(zheng)率(lv)(lv)，不考(kao)慮跨(kua)(kua)日調(diao)(diao)節(jie)，光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)日等(deng)(deng)效(xiao)(xiao)保(bao)(bao)證(zheng)(zheng)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)數為0，基本(ben)不能參加電(dian)力(li)平(ping)衡，即(ji)無(wu)法(fa)替代(dai)火(huo)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)；光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)儲(chu)熱(re)(re)時(shi)(shi)長15h(即(ji)儲(chu)熱(re)(re)容(rong)(rong)量可(ke)以支撐光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)滿(man)發(fa)15h)，根據(ju)天氣及(ji)出(chu)力(li)預測(ce)(ce)事(shi)先安排一(yi)定容(rong)(rong)量進行跨(kua)(kua)日調(diao)(diao)節(jie)，考(kao)慮跨(kua)(kua)日調(diao)(diao)節(jie)后光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)日等(deng)(deng)效(xiao)(xiao)保(bao)(bao)證(zheng)(zheng)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)數為5.1h，可(ke)滿(man)足(zu)晚高峰負荷4h需求，全(quan)容(rong)(rong)量參加電(dian)力(li)平(ping)衡，完全(quan)替代(dai)相同(tong)容(rong)(rong)量火(huo)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)。若按(an)100%保(bao)(bao)證(zheng)(zheng)率(lv)(lv)，光(guang)(guang)熱(re)(re)電(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)日等(deng)(deng)效(xiao)(xiao)保(bao)(bao)證(zheng)(zheng)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)數為3.5h，參加電(dian)力(li)平(ping)衡比例(火(huo)電(dian)容(rong)(rong)量替代(dai)率(lv)(lv))約(yue)87.5%。
表2 海西地區光熱(re)電站替代火電裝機比例測(ce)算
圖(tu)4 海西烏圖(tu)地區光熱電站日(ri)等效小時(shi)數(shu)分布示意(yi)圖(tu)
表3給出了(le)不同保證率(lv)情況(kuang)下，考慮跨日調節后(hou)的(de)光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)參加電(dian)(dian)力平衡(heng)容量(liang)。可(ke)以看出，晚高峰(feng)時段按6h，光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)替代火電(dian)(dian)裝機比例(li)有所降低，100%保證率(lv)下光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)(zhan)僅可(ke)替代約50%左右的(de)火電(dian)(dian)裝機。
表3 海(hai)西地區(qu)光熱在不同保證率下替代火電(dian)裝機比例測算(suan)
3.3 光熱電站應對季節性缺電能(neng)力分(fen)析
青海以水電(dian)(dian)和(he)新能(neng)源(yuan)為主，清潔(jie)能(neng)源(yuan)裝機占比(bi)達到90%以上，全(quan)年(nian)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)基(ji)本平衡，但(dan)存(cun)在季節性不平衡，冬季電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)量(liang)缺(que)額較大(da)。
圖5給出(chu)了(le)青(qing)海水(shui)電(dian)月電(dian)量(liang)分布示(shi)意圖。可以看出(chu)，青(qing)海水(shui)電(dian)占比(bi)較大，受(shou)來水(shui)影(ying)響，夏(xia)季(ji)(ji)5—10月發電(dian)量(liang)相對較多，冬(dong)季(ji)(ji)11—12月和1—2月發電(dian)量(liang)較少，季(ji)(ji)節性電(dian)量(liang)不平衡明(ming)顯。
圖5 2030年青海水電(dian)月發電(dian)量分布(bu)示意圖
圖6給出了青海新(xin)能(neng)源月電量(liang)分布(bu)示意圖。可(ke)以看出，青海新(xin)能(neng)源(含(han)光伏、風(feng)電、光熱)受(shou)資源影響(xiang)也存(cun)在較(jiao)大的(de)季節性電量(liang)不平衡，春(chun)季3—5月發(fa)電量(liang)較(jiao)多，冬季11—12月發(fa)電量(liang)明顯減少。
圖6 2030年青海(hai)新能源(yuan)月發電量分布示(shi)意圖
表4給出(chu)了青海(hai)(hai)逐月電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)平衡(heng)結果，其(qi)中示意(yi)圖見圖7。可以看出(chu)，由于水電(dian)(dian)和(he)新能源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)均受資源(yuan)約(yue)束，季(ji)節性電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)不平衡(heng)一直(zhi)存在(zai)，冬季(ji)兩者(zhe)疊加后發電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)減少較(jiao)多，青海(hai)(hai)全省出(chu)現較(jiao)大電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)缺口。
表4 2030年青(qing)海電(dian)網逐月電(dian)量平衡結果
圖7 2030年(nian)青海電網逐月電量平衡(heng)示(shi)意圖
青(qing)(qing)海(hai)(hai)季節(jie)(jie)(jie)性(xing)缺電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)問題(ti)一直存在(zai)，且(qie)隨(sui)著(zhu)新(xin)能(neng)源裝(zhuang)機滲透率逐(zhu)步(bu)(bu)提(ti)高，季節(jie)(jie)(jie)性(xing)缺電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)問題(ti)日益加劇(ju)。目前(qian)青(qing)(qing)海(hai)(hai)的冬季缺電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)問題(ti)仍主(zhu)要(yao)依托(tuo)西北主(zhu)網提(ti)供(gong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量支(zhi)撐，但隨(sui)著(zhu)西北其他省(sheng)份火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)建(jian)設空間進一步(bu)(bu)壓縮，再加上規劃(hua)通道(dao)建(jian)成和負荷(he)逐(zhu)步(bu)(bu)增長，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力盈余逐(zhu)步(bu)(bu)減(jian)小，給(gei)青(qing)(qing)海(hai)(hai)能(neng)夠(gou)提(ti)供(gong)的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力支(zhi)撐有(you)限，需要(yao)青(qing)(qing)海(hai)(hai)從自身內(nei)部尋求能(neng)夠(gou)解決季節(jie)(jie)(jie)性(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量不平(ping)衡的措施(shi)。目前(qian)來看(kan)，尚未有(you)經濟可行的跨(kua)季調節(jie)(jie)(jie)手段，光熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)在(zai)通過(guo)應急備用發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)可完全替代火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，以應對上述(shu)季節(jie)(jie)(jie)性(xing)缺電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)問題(ti)。
表5給出了(le)(le)海(hai)西地區光熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站應(ying)(ying)急(ji)備用發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)運(yun)行(xing)指標。圖8給出了(le)(le)海(hai)西地區光熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站考(kao)慮應(ying)(ying)急(ji)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)后的發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)分布。圖9給出了(le)(le)海(hai)西地區光熱(re)(re)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站考(kao)慮應(ying)(ying)急(ji)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)后的12月逐時平均發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)。可以看出，根據前述方法初(chu)步(bu)測算(suan)，全年(nian)應(ying)(ying)急(ji)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)22億(yi)kW·h，其中12月份需要應(ying)(ying)急(ji)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)最大(da)，約(yue)14億(yi)kW·h(占(zhan)比(bi)64%)，小時數提高約(yue)440h，占(zhan)比(bi)僅約(yue)8.8%。冬季12月日最大(da)應(ying)(ying)急(ji)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)1.2億(yi)kW·h(全天24h連續應(ying)(ying)急(ji)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)運(yun)行(xing))，小時最大(da)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)500萬kW·h(即滿功率(lv)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian))，可全容(rong)量(liang)替代火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機。
表5 海西地區光熱電站(zhan)應急備(bei)用(yong)發電運行指標
圖8 2030年(nian)海西(xi)地區(qu)光熱電站(zhan)發電量分布（含應急發電）
圖9 2030年海西地區光(guang)熱電站12月逐(zhu)時平(ping)均發電量（含(han)應急發電）
對不同光(guang)熱(re)規模(mo)對應的應急(ji)備用發電(dian)比例進行(xing)敏感性分析，表6和圖10給出(chu)了2030年海西地區(qu)不同規模(mo)光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)站對應應急(ji)備用發電(dian)運行(xing)指標。可以(yi)看出(chu)，隨著光(guang)熱(re)規模(mo)逐步減少(shao)，光(guang)熱(re)應急(ji)備用發電(dian)比例呈現逐步升高(gao)趨勢，由8.9%增加至20.2%。
表6 海西地區不同規(gui)模光熱電(dian)(dian)站應急(ji)備用發電(dian)(dian)運行指(zhi)標
圖10 2030年海西地區(qu)不(bu)同(tong)光熱電站規模(mo)發電量統計（含應(ying)急發電）
需要說明的是，關(guan)于(yu)應急備用(yong)發(fa)電(補(bu)燃(ran))技(ji)術(shu)方案，可以采用(yong)天然(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)補(bu)燃(ran)，也可以采用(yong)生物質補(bu)燃(ran)，還可與(yu)供熱相結合，有待進一步論證(zheng)。以天然(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)補(bu)燃(ran)為例，初(chu)步估(gu)算(suan)增加燃(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)備用(yong)鍋爐投資約(yue)1000元/kW，青海天然(ran)氣(qi)(qi)(qi)價格按1.15元/m3，補(bu)燃(ran)發(fa)電效率約(yue)40%左右，1m3氣(qi)(qi)(qi)按發(fa)4kW·h電考慮(lv)，補(bu)燃(ran)單位發(fa)電成本約(yue)0.2875元/(kW·h)。
4 結論
在國家雙碳(tan)目(mu)標驅動(dong)下，我國新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)裝機規模將更加(jia)快(kuai)速增(zeng)長，而(er)火電(dian)建設空(kong)間進一步壓縮。未來新(xin)型電(dian)力(li)(li)系統將面(mian)臨一定的(de)電(dian)力(li)(li)保障問題，光(guang)熱(re)電(dian)站(zhan)作為儲熱(re)型新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)電(dian)站(zhan)，通過增(zeng)加(jia)應急鍋爐備(bei)用發(fa)電(dian)，可以全時段(duan)替代火電(dian)裝機，為系統提供電(dian)力(li)(li)電(dian)量(liang)支撐。同(tong)時可以實現以少量(liang)低碳(tan)能(neng)源(yuan)帶動(dong)更大規模可再生能(neng)源(yuan)開發(fa)，可以助力(li)(li)我國新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)開發(fa)目(mu)標和碳(tan)達峰目(mu)標早日完成(cheng)。
研究結果初(chu)步表明，2030年前青海(hai)新增(zeng)1000~5000MW光熱電(dian)(dian)站，通(tong)過(guo)增(zeng)加10%~20%左右(you)應急備用發電(dian)(dian)量(liang)可(ke)以(yi)完全替代相(xiang)同容量(liang)火電(dian)(dian)，從而(er)應對季(ji)節性缺電(dian)(dian)問(wen)題或極(ji)端天氣(qi)下的電(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)量(liang)不足問(wen)題，保障電(dian)(dian)力可(ke)靠供應。
孫驍強1, 汪瑩1, 李慶海1, 李富春2, 楊攀(pan)峰2, 楊楠1, 張小(xiao)奇1, 霍超1, 傅旭(xu)2, 李海偉(wei)2
1. 國家(jia)電網有限(xian)公(gong)司西(xi)北(bei)分(fen)部，陜西(xi)省 西(xi)安市(shi) 710048;
2. 中(zhong)國電(dian)力工程顧(gu)問(wen)集團西北電(dian)力設計院有限公司，陜西省 西安市(shi) 710075
收稿日期：2021-10-21；在線(xian)出版日期：2022-07-08
電網技術, 2022, 46(8): 2948-2954.
作者簡介：
孫驍強，正高級工(gong)程師，曾(ceng)從事電力系統調(diao)度、規劃(hua)(hua)、技術研(yan)究(jiu)工(gong)作(zuo)，現(xian)任國家電網有限公司西北分部(bu)市場交易六(liu)部(bu)主任。研(yan)究(jiu)方向為(wei)電力系統規劃(hua)(hua)與運行、新能(neng)源并網與消納等。E-mail：lampsun@yeah.net。
其對(dui)西北新(xin)(xin)能源的運行及(ji)規劃(hua)有較(jiao)多研究，在新(xin)(xin)能源快速頻率響應(ying)方面相(xiang)關理(li)論(lun)已經編寫(xie)入國標。近(jin)年(nian)主編專業(ye)書籍3本，參與(yu)編寫(xie)國家標準3項(xiang)，發(fa)表EI檢索論(lun)文6篇并(bing)多次獲獎(jiang)，申請專利(li)7項(xiang)。
汪瑩，女，高級(ji)工程師，通信作(zuo)者(zhe)，研究方向為電力系統規(gui)劃，E-mail：wangying-1115@163.com。
