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從2014年(nian)6月13日習(xi)近平總書(shu)記提(ti)出“四個(ge)(ge)革(ge)命(ming)、一個(ge)(ge)合(he)作”的(de)能源(yuan)新(xin)戰(zhan)略至(zhi)今，已(yi)經過去了(le)整(zheng)整(zheng)五(wu)個(ge)(ge)年(nian)頭。五(wu)年(nian)來，在(zai)這(zhe)一戰(zhan)略指引(yin)下，我國能源(yuan)行業通過促進(jin)(jin)技術進(jin)(jin)步和(he)深(shen)化改革(ge)，無論是在(zai)供給側還(huan)是消(xiao)費側，以及國際合(he)作方(fang)面，都(dou)取得了(le)巨大的(de)成績，產(chan)生(sheng)了(le)深(shen)刻的(de)變(bian)化。在(zai)新(xin)能源(yuan)生(sheng)產(chan)等領域，革(ge)命(ming)性的(de)轉折點已(yi)經顯現，非化石能源(yuan)替代化石能源(yuan)的(de)趨勢已(yi)不可阻擋，能源(yuan)轉型進(jin)(jin)入了(le)一個(ge)(ge)全新(xin)的(de)階段。今后一個(ge)(ge)時期，圍繞既定(ding)目標，面對新(xin)形勢，還(huan)需要各方(fang)協(xie)調、創新(xin)，共同推動新(xin)時代能源(yuan)革(ge)命(ming)的(de)到來。

在供給側，非化石能源取代化石能源的條件初步具備

要實現非化石能源對化石能源的(de)大規模(mo)替(ti)代，最主(zhu)要的(de)是解決風、光等新能源的(de)經濟性(xing)和電力供應的(de)不(bu)(bu)穩定性(xing)問題。基地式規模(mo)化的(de)開發、能源技術的(de)不(bu)(bu)斷(duan)進步、智能控制技術的(de)廣泛(fan)應用，為我們提(ti)供可行解決方案。

“2毛錢”上(shang)(shang)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)生產大規模清潔替代(dai)的(de)(de)轉折點。隨(sui)著新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)技術的(de)(de)不斷(duan)突(tu)破和日益成(cheng)熟，其開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)成(cheng)本逐漸降(jiang)(jiang)低。當上(shang)(shang)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)接(jie)近“2毛錢”時(shi)(shi)，新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)建(jian)設(she)及生產成(cheng)本優勢將(jiang)更加明(ming)顯，非化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)將(jiang)加速替代(dai)傳統化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)。根據國(guo)(guo)際(ji)可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)署(shu)（IRENA）數(shu)據顯示，2010年(nian)至2018年(nian)，可再生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本大幅下降(jiang)(jiang)，其中(zhong)太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)全球平(ping)均成(cheng)本下降(jiang)(jiang)75.7%，陸(lu)上(shang)(shang)風(feng)力發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)下降(jiang)(jiang)25%。在(zai)世(shi)界某些地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)，陸(lu)上(shang)(shang)風(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)和太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)成(cheng)本可達(da)(da)到每千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)0.04美(mei)元(yuan)，巴西某光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)項(xiang)目(mu)最新中(zhong)標價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格僅(jin)為1.75美(mei)分(fen)(fen)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)，折合人(ren)民幣度電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)本僅(jin)為0.12元(yuan)，“2毛錢”新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)上(shang)(shang) 網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)已(yi)(yi)具備同(tong)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)標桿電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)同(tong)臺競爭的(de)(de)潛力。我國(guo)(guo)風(feng)光(guang)(guang)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)豐(feng)富(fu)，內(nei)蒙古、新疆等地(di)(di)風(feng)光(guang)(guang)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)1/60，即可滿足(zu)全國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力需求(qiu)。相(xiang)比于分(fen)(fen)布式(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)，大規模集中(zhong)開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)，一(yi)方(fang)面可通(tong)過規模效(xiao)(xiao)應(ying)降(jiang)(jiang)低造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，另一(yi)方(fang)面由于大規模開(kai)(kai)發(fa)(fa)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)互補(bu)，提升風(feng)光(guang)(guang)整體利(li)(li)用(yong)效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)，實際(ji)生產效(xiao)(xiao)益有(you)所(suo)增加。2018年(nian)，我國(guo)(guo)陸(lu)上(shang)(shang)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)平(ping)均單(dan)位(wei)(wei)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)約(yue)為7100元(yuan)，部分(fen)(fen)地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)項(xiang)目(mu)單(dan)位(wei)(wei)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)已(yi)(yi)低于6000元(yuan)；光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)全年(nian)平(ping)均單(dan)位(wei)(wei)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)約(yue)5500元(yuan)，部分(fen)(fen)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站單(dan)位(wei)(wei)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)已(yi)(yi)低于4500元(yuan)。如(ru)在(zai)內(nei)外蒙選取年(nian)利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)3000小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)以上(shang)(shang)的(de)(de)區(qu)(qu)域(yu)，建(jian)設(she)1～2億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)的(de)(de)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，其風(feng)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)是充沛(pei)的(de)(de)，上(shang)(shang)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)可達(da)(da)0.2元(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)。又如(ru)在(zai)青(qing)藏高原(yuan)、柴達(da)(da)木盆地(di)(di)等區(qu)(qu)域(yu)建(jian)5～10億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)，其光(guang)(guang)資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)利(li)(li)用(yong)小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)數(shu)可達(da)(da)到2000小(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，單(dan)位(wei)(wei)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)也可實現4000元(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，原(yuan)預測2023年(nian)可達(da)(da)到的(de)(de)0.2元(yuan)/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，目(mu)前就可實現。

儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)和(he)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)側(ce)管理可以有(you)效改善新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)不(bu)穩(wen)定性(xing)。近年來，儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)技術的(de)快速發展及(ji)成本(ben)持續(xu)下降(jiang)，使(shi)(shi)其在新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)領域的(de)應用越(yue)來越(yue)廣泛。它不(bu)僅能(neng)(neng)(neng)使(shi)(shi)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)更有(you)效的(de)利用，減(jian)少棄(qi)風棄(qi)光，還(huan)可以平抑發電(dian)(dian)(dian)出(chu)力，提高電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)質量，使(shi)(shi)更多的(de)“2毛錢”新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)得到(dao)消納。同(tong)時(shi)(shi)(shi)，當新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)成本(ben)降(jiang)到(dao)“2毛錢”或更低時(shi)(shi)(shi)，通(tong)(tong)過(guo)針對(dui)性(xing)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)側(ce)管理，可以為(wei)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)不(bu)穩(wen)定性(xing)問(wen)題找到(dao)新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)的(de)解決方案。如調整峰(feng)谷電(dian)(dian)(dian)價差，谷段(duan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價設(she)定在0.1～0.2元(yuan)/千瓦時(shi)(shi)(shi)，峰(feng)段(duan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價設(she)定在0.9～1.0元(yuan)/千瓦時(shi)(shi)(shi)。通(tong)(tong)過(guo)價格(ge)信號鼓勵需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)側(ce)的(de)用戶在谷段(duan)多用電(dian)(dian)(dian)、峰(feng)段(duan)多放電(dian)(dian)(dian)，使(shi)(shi)蓄電(dian)(dian)(dian)、蓄熱、蓄冷、蓄氫等多種能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)形式、多種設(she)備資(zi)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)得到(dao)合理有(you)效的(de)利用。通(tong)(tong)過(guo)時(shi)(shi)(shi)間、空(kong)間兩個維度(du)的(de)調節，解決新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)出(chu)力與(yu)負荷(he)同(tong)時(shi)(shi)(shi)率差的(de)問(wen)題，進而(er)降(jiang)低新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)不(bu)穩(wen)定特性(xing)對(dui)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)供(gong)需(xu)(xu)的(de)影(ying)響，促進新(xin)(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)大規模利用。

智能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)控制(zhi)技(ji)(ji)術為能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源轉型提供了(le)保障。大(da)數(shu)據、云(yun)計(ji)算(suan)、物(wu)聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)、移動互聯(lian)網(wang)(wang)等先進信息技(ji)(ji)術與能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源行業正(zheng)在(zai)深(shen)度融合。各種智能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)控制(zhi)技(ji)(ji)術使得能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源資(zi)源配置更加(jia)靈活(huo)高效(xiao)，多(duo)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)互補(bu)、智能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)網(wang)(wang)、車網(wang)(wang)互聯(lian)等技(ji)(ji)術在(zai)“源—網(wang)(wang)—荷—儲(chu)”各領域實(shi)現(xian)快速突(tu)破，更加(jia)智慧、柔性更高的(de)新一代(dai)電(dian)力系(xi)(xi)統正(zheng)在(zai)加(jia)速形(xing)成(cheng)。同時，城(cheng)市級(ji)(ji)、園區級(ji)(ji)、系(xi)(xi)統級(ji)(ji)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源智慧控制(zhi)系(xi)(xi)統也得到了(le)廣泛應用，為能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源電(dian)力系(xi)(xi)統帶來了(le)“智慧大(da)腦(nao)”，使能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源電(dian)力資(zi)源能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)在(zai)更大(da)范圍內實(shi)現(xian)靈活(huo)高效(xiao)配置，實(shi)現(xian)出力和(he)負荷的(de)動態匹配，促進了(le)不穩定非(fei)化石能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源的(de)消納(na)。

在消費側，大規模電能替代初具經濟性

在(zai)能源(yuan)消費側，除(chu)了(le)工業用戶，供(gong)暖(nuan)和交通是最(zui)主要的(de)兩(liang)個終端用能領域。如上所述(shu)，在(zai)新能源(yuan)上網(wang)電(dian)價下降(jiang)的(de)前(qian)提下，通過拉大峰谷(gu)電(dian)價差，特別是降(jiang)低谷(gu)電(dian)價格，如“2毛錢”，可以實現大規模(mo)電(dian)能替代，以電(dian)為核心的(de)能源(yuan)消費新時代將加(jia)速到來。

電(dian)供(gong)(gong)(gong)熱(re)可(ke)(ke)取(qu)代天(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)供(gong)(gong)(gong)熱(re)。1立(li)方天(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)燃燒后(hou)的熱(re)值約(yue)36兆焦，1度電(dian)的熱(re)值約(yue)為3.6兆焦，即10度電(dian)產生的熱(re)值與1立(li)方天(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)熱(re)值相當(dang)。當(dang)采(cai)用(yong)天(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)鍋(guo)爐和直熱(re)式(shi)電(dian)鍋(guo)爐進行供(gong)(gong)(gong)暖時，考慮管網及換(huan)熱(re)站損失后(hou)，兩者(zhe)系統供(gong)(gong)(gong)熱(re)效率相當(dang)。以北京(jing)地區商(shang)業天(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)及銷售電(dian)價估算，若(ruo)以2毛錢(qian)清潔電(dian)力為熱(re)力生產原料時，考慮輸配(pei)成(cheng)本、稅收、線損折價等因素，其終端銷售電(dian)價可(ke)(ke)控制在4毛錢(qian)以內，使直熱(re)式(shi)電(dian)鍋(guo)爐供(gong)(gong)(gong)熱(re)具有同天(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)鍋(guo)爐氣(qi)供(gong)(gong)(gong)熱(re)相當(dang)的經濟(ji)性，若(ruo)采(cai) 用(yong)空氣(qi)源熱(re)泵(beng)等更(geng)先(xian)進技術，其經濟(ji)性將更(geng)加(jia)明顯。“2毛錢(qian)”的用(yong)電(dian)價格可(ke)(ke)實(shi)現(xian)電(dian)供(gong)(gong)(gong)熱(re)對天(tian)然(ran)(ran)(ran)(ran)氣(qi)供(gong)(gong)(gong)熱(re)的加(jia)速取(qu)代。

電(dian)制(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)可(ke)(ke)實現燃(ran)油(you)替代。若以(yi)“2毛錢(qian)”的(de)清潔電(dian)力制(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)，平均60度(du)(du)電(dian)可(ke)(ke)制(zhi)1公(gong)(gong)斤氫(qing)(qing)氣(qi)，1公(gong)(gong)斤氫(qing)(qing)氣(qi)可(ke)(ke)使氫(qing)(qing)能(neng)汽車實現100公(gong)(gong)里續航(hang)里程，考慮(lv)氫(qing)(qing)氣(qi)儲(chu)運、加氫(qing)(qing)設備(bei)及(ji)加氫(qing)(qing)站(zhan)運行維護成本(ben)(ben)，1公(gong)(gong)斤氫(qing)(qing)氣(qi)的(de)終端使用價格約(yue)(yue)在40～50元(yuan)(yuan)左右(you)，百公(gong)(gong)里用能(neng)成本(ben)(ben)約(yue)(yue)0.4～0.5元(yuan)(yuan)。因此，考慮(lv)技術成熟度(du)(du)及(ji)各(ge)環節成本(ben)(ben)下降(jiang)趨勢，當制(zhi)氫(qing)(qing)度(du)(du)電(dian)成本(ben)(ben)為“2毛錢(qian)”時，氫(qing)(qing)能(neng)汽車則(ze)具有汽油(you)汽車同(tong)樣的(de)經濟性，可(ke)(ke)大規模(mo)實現對燃(ran)油(you)車的(de)替代。

能源轉型新階段的展望

新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)“2毛(mao)錢”上網電(dian)價和(he)消費側“2毛(mao)錢”谷電(dian)價格(ge)，是能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)型(xing)進(jin)入新(xin)階段(duan)的(de)重要標(biao)志。前者(zhe)使(shi)供應側清潔能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)大規(gui)(gui)模替(ti)代化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)成(cheng)為可(ke)能(neng)，后者(zhe)使(shi)消費側電(dian)能(neng)大規(gui)(gui)模替(ti)代化(hua)(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)成(cheng)為變(bian)得可(ke)行(xing)。能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)型(xing)進(jin)入新(xin)階段(duan)，必將(jiang)帶來(lai)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)生產方(fang)式、消費觀念和(he)社會生態的(de)變(bian)化(hua)(hua)。“清潔主導、電(dian)為主體”的(de)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)格(ge)局是發展(zhan)的(de)方(fang)向和(he)趨勢(shi)。基地(di)式規(gui)(gui)模化(hua)(hua)開發與儲能(neng)配(pei)合(he)將(jiang)成(cheng)為主要的(de)清潔能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)開發方(fang)式。利用遠方(fang)輸送來(lai)的(de)清潔電(dian)力及本地(di)開發的(de)分(fen)布式清潔能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，氫能(neng)小(xiao)鎮、零碳小(xiao)鎮將(jiang)大量出現，形成(cheng)無碳、無煤、無油、無天(tian)然氣城鎮能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發展(zhan)的(de)新(xin)模式、新(xin)思路。

當(dang)前，推動(dong)“2毛錢電價”新時代來臨，仍需(xu)從“源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)—網(wang)—荷—儲(chu)”等(deng)方面進行(xing)“綜合配套改革(ge)”，以(yi)(yi)體制(zhi)(zhi)機制(zhi)(zhi)為(wei)(wei)保障(zhang)，以(yi)(yi)各級(ji)政(zheng)策為(wei)(wei)引導，以(yi)(yi)技術(shu)創新為(wei)(wei)手段，以(yi)(yi)市(shi)場競(jing)爭(zheng)為(wei)(wei)動(dong)力，才(cai)能(neng)實現能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)革(ge)命(ming)(ming)的“全面突破”，加速能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)革(ge)命(ming)(ming)進程。