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5月20日，南方電力(li)現(xian)貨市場(chang)發布國內首次(ci)電力(li)現(xian)貨交易(yi)結算結果，包(bao)括190臺發電廠(chang)機(ji)組(zu)、123家售電公司、3家大(da)用戶(hu)在內的廣東全部(bu)市場(chang)主體參與本次(ci)結算。從(cong)最終結算電價(jia)來看，用戶(hu)平(ping)均節(jie)點(dian)電價(jia)0.263元/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)，夜間低谷時(shi)期平(ping)均節(jie)點(dian)電價(jia)0.082元/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)，負荷高峰時(shi)期平(ping)均節(jie)點(dian)電價(jia)0.362元/千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)。

市場化再進一步，電力的商品屬性逐步顯現

此次電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)現(xian)(xian)貨(huo)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)交(jiao)易(yi)由(you)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)商(shang)自(zi)主(zhu)申(shen)報(bao)擬(ni)出售的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)和價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)，由(you)購(gou)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)用(yong)戶自(zi)主(zhu)申(shen)報(bao)擬(ni)購(gou)買電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)，經過交(jiao)易(yi)平臺競(jing)價(jia)(jia)(jia)撮合，并通過電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網運行(xing)安全檢驗，每15分鐘(zhong)形成一個電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)。長期以(yi)(yi)來我國(guo)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業受限于“市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)煤計劃電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)”，盈利能力(li)受煤價(jia)(jia)(jia)波(bo)動影(ying)響較大，并未體現(xian)(xian)出公用(yong)事業屬性。以(yi)(yi)美國(guo)PJM電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)運行(xing)情況為(wei)例，其電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)均由(you)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)交(jiao)易(yi)機制決(jue)定(ding)，日前市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)自(zi)調度電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)占(zhan)比較高(gao)，占(zhan)比25%左右的(de)(de)實(shi)時現(xian)(xian)貨(huo)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)以(yi)(yi)5分鐘(zhong)為(wei)周(zhou)期競(jing)價(jia)(jia)(jia)。美國(guo)PJM電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)運營(ying)模式確(que)保了電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)是由(you)供(gong)需關(guan)系和發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成本決(jue)定(ding)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)期貨(huo)及現(xian)(xian)貨(huo)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)使得電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)的(de)(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)發現(xian)(xian)更加順(shun)暢。我們認為(wei)此次我國(guo)首次電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)現(xian)(xian)貨(huo)交(jiao)易(yi)結(jie)算落(luo)地(di)標志著(zhu)我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)化再(zai)進一步(bu)，現(xian)(xian)貨(huo)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)存在可以(yi)(yi)讓分時、分位置(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)信號更充分地(di)反映(ying)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)需情況，實(shi)現(xian)(xian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)資源時間及空間的(de)(de)優化配置(zhi)(zhi)。

短期內發電側仍以讓利為主，長期看有望實現優勝劣汰

從(cong)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)側價(jia)格(ge)曲線來看，此次電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)現(xian)(xian)貨(huo)市(shi)場仍以(yi)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)側讓利為(wei)(wei)主。由于目(mu)前電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)現(xian)(xian)貨(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)占(zhan)比較小(占(zhan)總用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)的(de)2%左右)，發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)側普遍基于邊際成(cheng)本報價(jia)，疊(die)加(jia)區域電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供需相對較為(wei)(wei)寬松，我們認為(wei)(wei)短期(qi)內現(xian)(xian)貨(huo)市(shi)場仍將以(yi)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)側讓利為(wei)(wei)主。長期(qi)而言(yan)，隨著(zhu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)現(xian)(xian)場市(shi)場占(zhan)比逐(zhu)步提升，其(qi)有望作為(wei)(wei)價(jia)格(ge)信號實(shi)時(shi)反映電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)市(shi)場供求(qiu)關系(xi)，改變(bian)以(yi)往中長期(qi)交(jiao)易只考(kao)慮電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)平衡的(de)局(ju)面。運營管理(li)水平高、能(neng)耗低(di)的(de)先進機組有望搶占(zhan)更多的(de)市(shi)場份額，落后(hou)產能(neng)則可能(neng)以(yi)市(shi)場化的(de)手段被淘汰出(chu)清(qing)。對于用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)側而言(yan)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)現(xian)(xian)貨(huo)市(shi)場有望進一(yi)步提升用(yong)戶分時(shi)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)積極(ji)性，從(cong)而降低(di)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網的(de)峰谷(gu)偏差(cha)，實(shi)現(xian)(xian)全(quan)社會用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)最優解(jie)。

二線地方電力龍頭

電(dian)(dian)力標(biao)的(de)方面(mian)，我們(men)認為第二(er)批(pi)降電(dian)(dian)價(jia)政策的(de)出臺預示著火電(dian)(dian)標(biao)桿電(dian)(dian)價(jia)調整(zheng)風險已經(jing)基本解除，增值(zhi)(zhi)稅率調降的(de)紅(hong)利有(you)望得以保留。對(dui)于水電(dian)(dian)及核電(dian)(dian)而言，其非市(shi)場化(hua)交易電(dian)(dian)量的(de)增值(zhi)(zhi)稅紅(hong)利被用(yong)于降電(dian)(dian)價(jia)，但不含(han)稅電(dian)(dian)價(jia)未有(you)不利影響(xiang)。可(ke)再生能源電(dian)(dian)力消納保障機(ji)制的(de)健全建立也(ye)有(you)望進一步改善(shan)水電(dian)(dian)及風電(dian)(dian)的(de)消納情況(kuang)。目(mu)前我們(men)繼續看好二(er)線地方電(dian)(dian)力龍頭，重(zhong)點推薦(jian)(jian)長源電(dian)(dian)力、湖北能源和福能股份。另外，長江電(dian)(dian)力各項指標(biao)表(biao)現(xian)良好、具有(you)裝機(ji)增長與穩定高分紅(hong)屬(shu)性，繼續重(zhong)點推薦(jian)(jian)。