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1月(yue)29日，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力(li)企業聯(lian)合會發布《2018～2019年(nian)度(du)全(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)力(li)供需(xu)形勢(shi)分析(xi)預測報(bao)(bao)告》（以(yi)下簡稱報(bao)(bao)告）。報(bao)(bao)告顯示(shi)，2018年(nian)，全(quan)國(guo)全(quan)社會用電(dian)(dian)量6.84萬億千瓦時，同比(bi)增長8.5%。其中(zhong)(zhong)高技術及裝備制造業用電(dian)(dian)領(ling)漲。報(bao)(bao)告表(biao)明，我國(guo)2018年(nian)年(nian)度(du)電(dian)(dian)力(li)消費結構繼續優化，電(dian)(dian)力(li)生產延續綠色低碳發展趨勢(shi)，高質量發展成(cheng)效初步(bu)顯現。

消費結構不斷優化

報告顯示，2018年，第二產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)用電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)4.72萬億千(qian)瓦時、同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)7.2%，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)為(wei)2012年以來(lai)新高，同比(bi)(bi)提高1.7個百(bai)分點，拉動(dong)全(quan)社會用電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)5.0個百(bai)分點。制(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)用電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)7.2%，各季度增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)分別(bie)為(wei)6.5%、8.0%、7.0%和6.2%。從幾(ji)大類行業(ye)(ye)來(lai)看(kan)，高技(ji)(ji)術及裝備制(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)用電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)9.5%，與同期技(ji)(ji)術進步、轉型升(sheng)級(ji)的(de)相(xiang)關產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)和產(chan)(chan)品較快(kuai)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)態(tai)勢基本一致。

在高(gao)技術及其(qi)裝備制(zhi)造(zao)業領(ling)跑增長的同時，四大高(gao)載(zai)能行(xing)業用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)增長6.1%，其(qi)用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)占(zhan)全社(she)會用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)的比重比上(shang)年降低0.6個百(bai)分點。s

總(zong)體(ti)看來(lai)我國電(dian)(dian)(dian)力消費結構(gou)正在不斷(duan)優化(hua)。報告顯(xian)示，第(di)二產(chan)業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量占全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量的(de)比(bi)重(zhong)為69.0%、比(bi)上年(nian)降低0.8個百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)。其中，高(gao)技術及裝備(bei)制造業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量比(bi)重(zhong)提(ti)高(gao)0.1個百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)。第(di)三產(chan)業(ye)、城鄉居民生活用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量比(bi)重(zhong)分(fen)(fen)別提(ti)高(gao)0.6和0.2個百分(fen)(fen)點(dian)，第(di)一產(chan)業(ye)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量比(bi)重(zhong)為1.1%，與上年(nian)持平。

生產延續綠色低碳趨勢

在電(dian)(dian)(dian)力生產方面，非(fei)(fei)化石能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)量和發電(dian)(dian)(dian)量都(dou)保持著持續增(zeng)(zeng)長的態勢。報(bao)告顯示，2018年全國新增(zeng)(zeng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)容量1.2億千(qian)瓦(wa)、同比減少605萬千(qian)瓦(wa)。其(qi)中，新增(zeng)(zeng)非(fei)(fei)化石能(neng)源(yuan)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)占新增(zeng)(zeng)總裝機(ji)(ji)(ji)的73.0%。

雖然“5·31光伏(fu)新(xin)政(zheng)(zheng)”出臺(tai)后，光伏(fu)發電增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)放緩，全(quan)(quan)年新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)發電裝機(ji)容量比(bi)(bi)(bi)上年下降16.2%，但隨著國家加快推進和實施(shi)光伏(fu)扶貧政(zheng)(zheng)策，西部地區新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)發電比(bi)(bi)(bi)重(zhong)同比(bi)(bi)(bi)提高7.8個百分點(dian)。東、中部地區新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)風電裝機(ji)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)為(wei)64.2%、太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)發電裝機(ji)占(zhan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)為(wei)72.2%。全(quan)(quan)國新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)煤電2903萬(wan)千瓦、同比(bi)(bi)(bi)少投產601萬(wan)千瓦，為(wei)2004年以來的(de)最低水平。

全國全口(kou)徑發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量6.99萬億(yi)千瓦時(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)8.4%。其(qi)中，非化石能(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量2.16萬億(yi)千瓦時(shi)、同(tong)(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)11.1%，占總(zong)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量的(de)比重為30.9%、比上(shang)年(nian)提(ti)高0.6個百分(fen)點。水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量1.23萬億(yi)千瓦時(shi)、同(tong)(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.2%，火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量4.92萬億(yi)千瓦時(shi)、同(tong)(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)7.3%。全國并網(wang)太陽能(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量分(fen)別為1775、3660、2944億(yi)千瓦時(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比分(fen)別增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)50.8%、20.2%、18.6%。新能(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)已成為內(nei)蒙(meng)古、新疆、河北、山東、寧夏、山西(xi)、江(jiang)蘇、黑龍江(jiang)、安徽、吉林等14個省區第(di)二大(da)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)類(lei)型。

與此同(tong)時(shi)，2018年(nian)新(xin)能源消納也逐步(bu)推進，棄(qi)(qi)(qi)風(feng)棄(qi)(qi)(qi)光問題(ti)得到改善。報告顯示，2018年(nian)，全(quan)國棄(qi)(qi)(qi)風(feng)電量277億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)，平均(jun)棄(qi)(qi)(qi)風(feng)率7%，同(tong)比下降5個百分(fen)(fen)點；全(quan)國棄(qi)(qi)(qi)光電量54.9億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)，平均(jun)棄(qi)(qi)(qi)光率3%，同(tong)比下降2.8個百分(fen)(fen)點。華北(bei)(bei)、西(xi)北(bei)(bei)、東北(bei)(bei)地區風(feng)電設備利用(yong)小(xiao)時(shi)分(fen)(fen)別比上年(nian)提(ti)高102、215和236小(xiao)時(shi)，西(xi)北(bei)(bei)、東北(bei)(bei)地區太陽能發電設備利用(yong)小(xiao)時(shi)分(fen)(fen)別提(ti)高66和65小(xiao)時(shi)。

2019年全(quan)國(guo)電(dian)力供需形(xing)勢如(ru)何(he)？報告預(yu)測(ce)，2019年全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量增速將平穩回(hui)落，在平水年、沒有大范圍極(ji)端氣溫影響的情況下(xia)，預(yu)計用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量增長5.5%左右。

報告認為，2019年(nian)，新能源發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝機將(jiang)持續增加；第三產業(ye)和居民生(sheng)活(huo)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)比重持續提高(gao)，拉(la)大系統峰(feng)(feng)谷(gu)差(cha)，時(shi)段(duan)性系統調峰(feng)(feng)能力(li)不(bu)足；電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)價格(ge)高(gao)位運行(xing)，發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)用煤(mei)維持地區(qu)(qu)性季(ji)節(jie)性供(gong)(gong)需(xu)偏緊(jin)格(ge)局。在(zai)多重因(yin)素(su)疊加、交(jiao)互影響下，預計全年(nian)全國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)總(zong)體(ti)平(ping)衡(heng)，局部地區(qu)(qu)高(gao)峰(feng)(feng)時(shi)段(duan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)偏緊(jin)。其中，華(hua)(hua)北、華(hua)(hua)中區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)局部性時(shi)段(duan)性電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)偏緊(jin)；華(hua)(hua)東(dong)區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)總(zong)體(ti)平(ping)衡(heng)；南方區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)需(xu)總(zong)體(ti)平(ping)衡(heng)，枯水期廣西、貴州偏緊(jin)，汛期云南清(qing)潔能源消納壓力(li)較大；東(dong)北、西北區(qu)(qu)域(yu)(yu)預計電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供(gong)(gong)應能力(li)富余。